HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET

Hey all. Hope you’re not feeling too much whiplash after another wild week on Wall Street. (We’re feeling it, too… but it’s on us for expecting anything else.)

But we have an exciting announcement coming this weekend that we think will make navigating these stormy waters easier for everyone.

Stay tuned: we’ll share more on Sunday morning. In the meantime, here’s our usual dose of certainty, amid an increasingly uncertain market.

  • 🟥 | US stocks slumped again today, putting the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite firmly in correction territory, as geopolitical and inflationary concerns continue to mount.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Brown-Forman (BF.B) jumped after confirming merger talks with French spirits company Pernod Ricard (PRDNY).

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: CrowdStrike (CRWD) fell after reports that Anthropic's new AI model may introduce cybersecurity risks.

— Brooks & Cas

MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 Heatmap. Source: Unusual Whales

PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT

Markets can't agree on where the economy lands, and neither can the prediction markets.

Stagflation, soft landing, and overheating are all within eight points of each other on Kalshi, with traders now pricing a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end as oil clears $111.

The Fed is threading a needle with no thread. What will the tapestry look like?

Market Movers

CARNIVAL, ENTERGY, META

📉 | Carnival (CCL) cut full-year adjusted profit guidance.

📈 | Entergy (ETR) surged on a deal with Meta to power a hyperscale data center in Northeast Louisiana.

📉 | Meta Platforms (META) headed for its worst weekly performance since October after losing two court cases and announcing a round of layoffs.

📈 | Argan (AGX) beat Q4 earnings and revenue expectations by a wide margin.

📉 | Palo Alto Networks (PANW) also sold off on reports that Anthropic's new AI model may present security risks.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

STILL WATERS RUN DEEP

Stock Spotlight

  • Stock: Primo Brands (PRMB)

  • Firm: Jefferies (JEF)

  • Current Price: $18.25

  • Price Target: $25

  • Implied Upside: 37%

Want an additional pick with 3x the upside potential? Scroll to the end for more.

Nothing ‘Routine’ About This Setup

The Rating: Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala upgraded Primo Brands to Buy, arguing the company's story is shifting from stabilization to optimization, with its retail opportunity now coming to the fore.

The Thesis: Sometimes, a stock’s core catalyst is earnings. Other times, it’s a blockbuster deal. In Primo’s case, per Gajrawala, it’s a guy dunking his head into a bowl full of one of its products: Saratoga Spring. The spring water went viral on TikTok for its role in influencer Ashton Hall’s morning routine, creating what the firm calls "a rare combination of value, growth, and visibility.”

The Follow-On: Gajrawala considers Primo’s EBITDA guidance conservative and sees multiple revenue levers yet to be pulled. The analyst believes current share prices do not reflect the company's earnings power through 2028.

Are you bullish or bearish on Primo Brands (PRMB) over the next 12 months?

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OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

🛢️ | Iran turned back two COSCO container vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the first effort by a major carrier to cross the route since the war began.

💸 | About 1.4M filers face tax refund delays as the IRS phases out paper checks.

✈️ | The Senate passed a bill to fund most of DHS while excluding ICE, but House Republicans signaled plans to extend the partial shutdown.

📺 | Netflix (NFLX) raised prices across all subscription tiers by at least $1, with the standard plan now $19.99 and the premium plan now $26.99 a month.

🎮 | Sony (SONY) also raised PS5 prices by up to $150, blaming memory chip costs driven by AI data center demand.

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Analog Devices (ADI) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

STREET SHEET RESEARCH MEMBERS ONLY

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