Still Waters Run Deep

Jefferies upgraded Primo Brands $PRMW ( ▲ 2.07% ) to Buy, raising its price target to $25.

Analyst Kaumil Gajrawala described the company as offering "a rare combination of value, growth, and visibility," arguing the story is shifting from stabilization to optimization, with the retail opportunity now front and center.

Primo issued adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.485 billion to $1.515 billion for fiscal year 2026. Gajrawala called that figure "not just achievable but conservative," pointing to multiple growth levers still in play.

Primo's viral marketing push for its Saratoga Spring brand has fueled its retail ambitions.

A TikToker's morning routine featuring the brand's iconic blue bottle generated significant attention in early 2025. Saratoga also landed on the Golden Globes red carpet, and sibling brand Mountain Valley is set for visibility at the Academy of Country Music Awards this spring.

Despite the buzz, Gajrawala believes Primo "has yet to scratch the surface" on revenue growth management.

He sees untapped levers in pricing, display execution, pack architecture, and cold-channel exposure, and expects retail sales to grow roughly 2.5% in the coming years, with the top line accelerating through 2026.

Primo shares have outpaced the broader market this year, but they remain sharply lower over the past twelve months. Of the 13 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, while 3 give it a Hold, and none rate it below that.

"At 10x 2028 earnings, shares do not reflect the earnings power," Gajrawala wrote. The market, it seems, hasn't fully tasted what's in the bottle yet.