HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET

The TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”) Trade is so 2025. 2026 could turn out to be the year of the TALC (“Trump Always Loses in Court”) Trade.

In a 6-to-3 decision, the US Supreme Court invalidated many of President Trump’s tariffs imposed under emergency authority, calling them beyond the statute’s scope.

Trump responded quickly, maintaining he has a backup plan to keep his preferred trade munitions in place. The source of much market turmoil in recent years may be overturned. But the uncertainty that compounded it isn’t going anywhere.

  • 🟩 | US stocks ticked up today in a tepid response to the aforementioned news, as investors awaited clarity on the inevitable fallout.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: AppLovin (APP) rose on reports it is developing its own social media platform.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Grail (GRAL) plunged nearly 50% after a drug trial failed to show statistically significant cancer reduction.

— Brooks & Cas

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DISCLAIMER: *Statements made regarding planned release dates, planned contracts, and estimated results are based on current expectations and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. **Dates are subject to change without notice. ***The amount raised may include insider investments, which may go toward meeting the minimum offering amount. This Reg CF offering is made available through StartEngine Primary, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. This investment is speculative, illiquid, and involves a high degree of risk.

MARKET SNAPSHOT

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT

It wasn’t just a legal loss. It could be a $175 billion check. A new estimate says importers could be owed massive refunds after SCOTUS invalidated many Trump tariffs imposed under emergency authority.

But “could” is the operative word. As Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh said in his dissent, “the refund process is likely to be a ‘mess’.” Here’s how the market is currently pricing the odds that the US will eventually have to pay up.

Market Movers

CELSIUS, CHEMOURS, OPENDOOR

Celsius Holdings (CELH) highlighted growth tied to its PepsiCo (PEP) partnership.

Chemours (CC) slumped after posting a Q4 earnings miss despite in-line revenue.

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) signaled a path toward profitability by late 2026.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) issued Q1 earnings guidance below consensus.

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) delivered a Q4 revenue beat.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

BEAUTY AND THE BULL

Stock Spotlight

  • Stock: Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

  • Firm: Raymond James (RJF)

  • Current Price: $681

  • Price Target: $790

  • Implied Upside: 16%

Earnings Acceleration Ahead

Raymond James sees further upside for Ulta, driven by earnings growth that is set to reaccelerate.

The stock has surged more than 30% over the past six months, and that’s after EPS fell 3% in fiscal 2025.

Now, analysts project EPS to rise 1% in fiscal 2026, then pop more than 11% in the current fiscal year.

With 46 million loyalty members accounting for 95% of sales, Ulta’s recurring customer base supports long-term growth.

Raymond James believes improving earnings momentum can power the next leg higher.

Are you bullish or bearish on Ulta Beauty (ULTA) over the next 12 months?

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With years of testing and 75+ patents, GACW is ready for the technology’s commercial launch in 2026.* The wheels are in motion. Are you along for the ride?

DISCLAIMER: *Statements made regarding planned release dates, planned contracts, and estimated results are based on current expectations and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. **Dates are subject to change without notice. ***The amount raised may include insider investments, which may go toward meeting the minimum offering amount. This Reg CF offering is made available through StartEngine Primary, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. This investment is speculative, illiquid, and involves a high degree of risk.

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

📈 US GDP grew 1.4% in Q4, missing 2.5% estimates, as Wall Street blamed a 43-day shutdown.

⚖️ Trump announced a new 10% global tariff after the Supreme Court struck down his reciprocal duties.

💼 Microsoft (MSFT) gaming chief Phil Spencer will retire after 38 years, with Instacart’s (CART) Asha Sharma succeeding him as Xbox revenue falls 10%.

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on T-Mobile (TMUS) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐂 Bullish — “I’ve used TMUS as a carrier for 8 years. They’ve grown from a laughable budget option to a real player with coverage to rival or surpass AT&T or Verizon. There’s still market share to steal.”

  • 🐻 Bearish — “The cell market is pretty saturated, and the quality of service between the providers is only nominally different. Hard to see where increased market […] could come from.”

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