Beauty and the Bull

Ulta Beauty $ULTA ( ▼ 1.43% ) has already climbed more than 30% over the past six months. Raymond James $RJF ( ▲ 0.15% ) believes it is not done.

The firm upgraded the stock in late January and set a $790 price target, implying roughly 16.5% upside from recent levels.

The call rests on earnings acceleration and a valuation that still looks reasonable on a historical basis.

Ulta’s earnings per share fell nearly 3% in fiscal 2025. But analysts project them to rise 1% in fiscal 2026, then accelerate more than 11% in the current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, gross margins remain just below 40%, and the stock trades at about 24x earnings. That’s low for the stock, historically. Over the past five years, Ulta’s average multiple has been closer to 33x.

Raymond James argues earnings likely bottomed in 2025. If growth ramps as expected, the multiple may not look stretched.

Ulta’s rewards program now counts more than 46 million members, who drive roughly 95% of sales.

The company continues refining its value proposition with subscription-style Replenish and Save options and teen-focused accounts designed to build lifetime loyalty.

Investors also point to exclusive brands, growing wallet share, and expansion into new demographics, including men.

Retail remains competitive. But Ulta has navigated post-pandemic shifts and competitive pressures well.

In a market searching for durable growth outside of tech, beauty may still have its shine.