HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET
Today marked the formal start of Tim Cook’s long goodbye.
Apple's (AAPL) developer conference kicked off today with a privacy-first pitch for its AI features. Its the last such event for longtime CEO Cook, who hands the reins to John Ternus in September.
The company has spent two years playing AI catch-up. Fitting that its big swing is finally teaching one of its oldest dogs a new trick.
🟩 | US stocks bounced back today as investors bought the dip on chip stocks that got battered on Friday.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Wix (WIX) slid after cutting its full-year bookings outlook to the low teens.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WHEN WILL TRAFFIC AT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ RETURN TO NORMAL?
Iran and Israel halted multiple exchanges of fire today after Trump intervened and called for an immediate ceasefire. But that doesn’t mean markets expect a return to normalcy anytime soon.
Kalshi traders put the odds of normal traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world's oil moves — by year-end at just 1 in 3. Bets on an August recovery have cratered from 66% to 21%.
Market Movers
CEREBRAS, ALPHABET, MARVELL
📈 | Cerebras Systems (CBRS) rocketed on a wave of bullish Wall Street initiations.
📉 | Alphabet slipped on the aforementioned report linking it to a possible Intel foundry deal.
📈 | Marvell Technology (MRVL) rallied on news it's joining the S&P 500.
📉 | Flex (FLEX) eased even as it joins the S&P 500 alongside Marvell.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
WRANGLING SOME UPSIDE
Stock Spotlight
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Inflection Detection
Analyst Matthew Boss kicked off coverage of the Wrangler maker at Overweight, calling its portfolio an inflection point. A leaner brand lineup, according to Boss, means sharper focus and faster growth.
Two Brands, One Bet
Kontoor now leans on just two brand names: Wrangler in jeans, and Helly Hansen in the outdoors.
The portfolio slimmed down after Kontoor sold its Lee denim brand to Authentic Brands Group for $1 billion. But Boss believes the move will pay off.
The analyst sees Wrangler revenue accelerating to low-to-mid single-digit growth and Helly Hansen reaching low double digits, both running ahead of his own model. Narrowed management focus, he argues, is the catalyst.
Price To Move
Boss notes that deal went off at 10x trailing EBITDA, which makes his own 8.5x multiple look conservative and hints at even more equity value.
Shares have been in the red since their January 2025 high. He thinks his estimates have room to run. Sometimes the best fit is the one you tailor yourself.
Do you own any shares of Kontoor Brands (KTB)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
⚖️ | President Trump formally nominated acting AG Todd Blanche for the permanent role, despite bipartisan criticism over his authorization of a $1.8B DOJ fund tied to the settlement of Trump's lawsuit against the IRS.
🛂 | A federal judge vacated Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee, ruling it an unlawful tax the executive branch had no power to impose.
🪙 | Convicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried formally requested a presidential pardon from Trump while serving his 25-year sentence.
📉 | Household worries over personal finances hit their highest level since July 2022, a New York Fed survey found.
🪰 | The USDA said the US food supply is not at risk after two more screwworm cases in Texas brought the state's total to four.
FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Robinhood (HOOD)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Yup, I’m holding — “Since I originally bought HOOD it hasn't done much... hoping the future shows my buy & hold is/was the right decision.”
🐻 Nope, not interested — “I watched the movie — it doesn't end well for most.”
