HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET
Trump posted on Truth Social that US-Iran talks were "productive." Iranian state media called that false. Markets added roughly $3 trillion in S&P 500 market cap in the first hour, as crude fell more than 10% on ceasefire hopes. Nothing prices in a peace deal quite like the other side denying it ever happened.
🟩 | US stocks surged today as investors decided the above mixed signals ultimately leaned positive.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Palantir (PLTR) surged after Reuters reported the Pentagon will adopt its Maven AI as the core military targeting platform across all branches of the armed forces.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Micron (MU) fell despite record quarterly earnings, as geopolitical concerns and profit-taking pressured shares.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WHEN WILL DHS BE FUNDED AGAIN?
TSA workers have gone weeks without pay while ICE agents, funded through Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, collect regular paychecks.
More than 400 TSA officers have quit since the shutdown began in February. Lines at major hubs stretch for hours, and Trump's fix is deploying immigration agents to security checkpoints.
Prediction markets are not counting on April 1. Although announcing a deal on April Fool’s Day must be tempting…
Market Movers
CARNIVAL, FLUTTER, SYNOPSIS
📈 | Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) rose on reports of a proposed bipartisan Senate bill that would ban sports betting on prediction markets.
📈 | Carnival (CCL) jumped as cruise lines rallied on signs of potential de-escalation in the Iran war.
📈 | Synopsys (SNPS) rose after Elliott Investment Management disclosed a multibillion-dollar stake in the chip design software company.
📈 | Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) surged on positive Phase 2 results for its treatment for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis.
📈 | Two Harbors Investment (TWO) surged after deeming CrossCountry Mortgage's unsolicited $10.70-per-share buyout offer superior to a prior bid.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
OIL'S WELL THAT ENDS WELL
Stock Spotlight
Not a Drop to Worry About
The Rating: Chris O'Cull at Stifel upgraded Valvoline to Buy, citing a compelling entry point after a recent pullback and arguing that market fears about oil-driven margin compression are overblown.
The Thesis: Less than 20% of Valvoline's operating costs are linked to oil-derived products, and two structural offsets protect margins even if crude stays elevated: floating franchise pricing and rising waste-oil recovery revenue.
The Follow-On: Base oil moves far more slowly than crude. A sustained price spike would take three to four months to reach Valvoline's income statement, giving management time to adjust pricing ahead of any margin impact.
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🛢️ | The IEA chief said the Middle East conflict has knocked 11M barrels per day off global oil supply, more than the combined losses of both 1970s oil shocks.
Kalshi Odds: “WTI oil price on Friday?”
$91.99 or below: 53%
$105 or above: 14%
✈️ | An Air Canada (AC) Express jet collided with a Port Authority fire truck while landing at LaGuardia Airport, killing both pilots and injuring 41 passengers and crew.
⚔️ | Israel launched a new wave of airstrikes on Tehran even as Trump signaled a five-day pause in US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
🏭 | Toyota (TM) announced $1B in new investments at US plants in Kentucky and Indiana as part of a broader plan to spend up to $10B domestically through 2030.
FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Air Products and Chemicals (APD) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Bullish — “AirProducts has a solid position in the liquid Helium market with pricing strength short term and a potentially significant market expansion as quantum computers come online.”
🐻 Bearish — “Trump is too narcissistic to bear bad headlines for too long. Something will be done to resolve or cool Iran situation before it turns into a complete quagmire, which would invalidate this play entirely.”
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