Happy Thursday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

• 🟨 | US stocks ended where they started Thursday. All three major averages ended the day essentially flat after a hotter-than-anticipated CPI report. See the heat maps below.

• 📈 | One Notable Gainer: DocuSign shares surged in afternoon trading Thursday following a report suggesting multiple private equity firms are competing to acquire the company.

• 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Lucid Group’s stock traded lower on Thursday after the company announced fourth-quarter deliveries. Its shares are now trading at record lows.

•  🙌 | Tomorrow's Trade: Wall Street Anticipates a Bond Bounceback. Scroll down for more.

Plus, now is a pivotal time to have one emerging NASDAQ company in the alcohol industry on your radar.

YESTERDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on the overall stock market in 2024?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐻 Bearish

Click here to tell us your thoughts on the overall stock market this year

MARKET MOVERS

Citigroup, Lyft, & KB Home

C: Citigroup's stock fell 2% after the bank said it would likely post a loss in the fourth quarter, driven in part by restructuring charges and a decline of the Argentine peso. Citigroup will announce results tomorrow morning.

LYFT: After a downgrade from Goldman Sachs, shares of Lyft fell 3% during the trading day but then recovered. Goldman cited a "more balanced risk-reward" for the ride-share company after its stock gained nearly 35% "since its last Q3′23 earnings results in early November."

KBH: KB Home's stock dropped 1% after the homebuilder said its average home-selling prices had declined 4.5% last quarter.

IRBT: Amazon missed a Wednesday deadline to provide the EU with materials related to its $1.7 billion purchase of iRobot, the Roomba maker. iRobot's stock popped around 4%.

PARA: Both Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery shares fell on Thursday after Redburn Atlantic downgraded the companies, citing a “negative tipping point” in advertising for Warner Bros. Discovery specifically.

TOGETHER WITH LQR HOUSE

This Small-Cap NASDAQ Company Could Lead the Alcohol Space In 2024

Now is a pivotal time to have one emerging NASDAQ company in the alcohol industry on your radar.

Beginning in early November, the company entered a transformative series of transactions that put it in charge of one of the largest online liquor distributors in the U.S. and launched it as a powerhouse of the industry. 

It also solidified its balance sheet with the addition of >$10MM of new cash.  These are just a few of the catalysts that could drive tremendous growth in 2024.

It also helps to explain why one research firm believes the company to be undervalued and gave it a bullish price target. Click here to read more.

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

Reuters: Microsoft overtook Apple as the world's most valuable company on Thursday after the iPhone maker's shares made a weak start to 2024 due to growing concerns over demand.

CNBC: For her bull case, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood sees Bitcoin hitting $1.5 million by 2030. Her base case is in the $600,000 range, she said.

CBS: Google has laid off hundreds of employees working on its hardware, voice assistance, and engineering teams as part of cost-cutting measures.

Tech Crunch: Circle Internet Financial (Circle) has confidentially filed for a proposed IPO, the company said on Thursday. Circle is the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, which has the second-largest market capitalization on the market, worth about $25.25 billion.

Reuters: "I think March is probably too early in my estimation for a rate decline because I think we need to see some more evidence," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Thursday.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

Wall Street Anticipates a Bond Bounce Back

Closest Thing to a Sure Thing

Any financial advisor worth their salt will tell you there is no such thing as a sure thing in investing. 

However, right now many investors think high-quality US bonds are about as close as you can get. 

Wall Street seems relatively convinced that interest rates won’t push any higher. This is despite the Fed’s December meeting minutes and the stronger-than-expected CPI report that came in this morning. 

Here’s the logic: if, and when, interest rates fall, those who hold bonds and Treasuries purchased when rates were high will see the value of their holdings increase.

It All Hinges on the Fed

As with many other aspects of the financial world, the Fed ultimately holds the key. 

Futures traders are betting that the Fed will lower rates starting in March (66% probability) of this year, a trend that will continue throughout the remainder of 2024. Wall Street thinks bond prices should continue to rise as a result. 

Not every investor agrees, though. After the Fed's rate-cut announcement the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4%. Some on the Street question how much further the yield can realistically fall, considering the ongoing growth of the US economy and surprisingly robust labor market.

Even Being Wrong May Be Right

Yields are at their highest level in decades. Even if Wall Street is wrong and there are more rate hikes – or no rate cuts – the interest payments on these securities should be high enough to offset price decreases.

Not to mention, rate cuts will have investors who have parked their funds in money markets and ultra-short-term debt over the last year or so see their returns dwindle. Many will opt to move those funds into bonds. 

TOGETHER WITH LQR HOUSE

This Small-Cap NASDAQ Company Could Lead the Alcohol Space In 2024

Now is a pivotal time to have one emerging NASDAQ company in the alcohol industry on your radar. 

Beginning in early November, the company entered a transformative series of transactions that put it in charge of one of the largest online liquor distributors in the U.S. and launched it as a powerhouse of the industry. 

It also solidified its balance sheet with the addition of >$10MM of new cash.  These are just a few of the catalysts that could drive tremendous growth in 2024.

It also helps to explain why one research firm believes the company to be undervalued and gave it a bullish price target. Click here to read more.

ON OUR RADAR

Forbes: Executives estimate that nearly half (49%) of the skills that exist in their workforce today won’t be relevant in 2025.

FT: There are $117bn of commercial mortgages tied to offices which either need to be repaid or refinanced in 2024, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

CNBC: Is the golden age of remote work over? Finding fully remote work is getting challenging. ​​New research from Indeed found that job postings are declining faster in metropolitan areas where many jobs can be done remotely.

WSJ: Real-estate firms and data companies are projecting total rent growth in the very low single digits this year. Data provider Yardi Matrix predicts rents will rise 1.5%, while commercial-property firm CBRE estimates growth of 1.2%.

CNBC: American CEOs left their posts in record numbers in 2023, according to research by Challenger, Gray and Christmas. The firm found that more than 1,500 CEOs left their posts so far in 2023, marking the highest amount of departures since Challenger began tracking the data in 2002.