HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET
United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby reportedly floated a merger with American Airlines (AAL) to Trump administration officials. The theoretical deal would create the world's largest carrier and hand the combined entity 40% of domestic capacity.
Hard to put anything past today’s FTC, but legal experts across the board called the deal dead on arrival. The skies may well have a weight limit.
🟩 | US stocks gained again today, erasing the S&P 500’s Iran-linked losses.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Feasibility aside, both United Airlines and American Airlines both popped on the merger reports.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Occidental (OXY) fell as crude oil tumbled on reports of renewed US-Iran peace talks.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
ZYN US SHIPMENT VOLUME IN Q1 2026?
It’s earnings season again, and the spotlight this week is on big banks. But our eyes are on a different flavor of megacorporation.
Philip Morris (PM) reports one week from today. For a certain subset of Wall Street, only one number matters: how many cans of Zyn shipped in Q1.
The market prices a 200-million-can quarter at just $0.27 on the dollar. Finance bros famously love Zyn, but evidently not enough to bet on it.
Market Movers
BLOOM ENERGY, WELLS FARGO, GLOBALSTAR
📉 | Wells Fargo (WFC) slid after first-quarter results disappointed investors.
📈 | Globalstar (GSAT) surged after Amazon (AMZN) agreed to acquire the satellite operator for $11.57B.
📉 | CarMax (KMX) plunged as the company paused its share repurchase program.
📈 | Credo Technology (CRDO) jumped after agreeing to acquire optical transceiver developer DustPhotonics for $750M.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
TO BIIB OR NOT TO BIIB?
Stock Spotlight
Biogen Is Back In
Wall Street has largely ignored Biogen. Piper Sandler thinks that's a mistake.
The firm upgraded the pharma firm to Overweight, with analyst David Amsellem making the case that two newer drugs, Syfovre and Empaveli, can bridge the company over its looming revenue gap.
The bull thesis starts with those drugs, but doesn’t stop there.
The Ocrevus Clock
Biogen's biggest drag on sentiment is Ocrevus, a multiple sclerosis drug that generates significant royalty income but is set to lose patent exclusivity between 2028 and 2029.
Piper Sandler pushed back on the bear case, arguing the erosion will be less severe than feared and that an advancing immunology pipeline, led by a drug called felzartamab, can sustain top-line growth well into the next chapter.
An enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of roughly 11x leaves room for expansion, per the analyst.
Against the Grain
Most of Wall Street disagrees. Of the 37 analysts covering Biogen, the majority rate it a Hold, with only 15 at a Buy or Strong Buy.
Shares are flat so far in 2026. Piper Sandler is betting the rest of the Street is staring at the wrong clock.
Do you own any shares of Biogen Inc (BIIB)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
📊 | US producer prices rose 4% year-over-year in March, the largest annual gain in more than three years, driven by an 8.5% surge in energy costs.
Kalshi Odds: “CPI in April?”
Above 0.3%: 97%
Above 0.4%: 70%
Above 0.5%: 38%
Above 0.6%: 15%
🕊️ | A second round of US-Iran negotiations is under discussion, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports now in effect and a fragile ceasefire set to expire April 21.
🔐 | JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said testing Anthropic's Mythos AI model revealed cybersecurity vulnerabilities at the bank.
🇨🇳 | China's exports grew just 2.5% in March, a sharp deceleration from 21.8% in the prior two months, as the Iran war weighs on global demand.
🏦 | Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh disclosed more than $100M in financial holdings, including stakes in SpaceX and Polymarket, ahead of a Senate confirmation hearing set for April 21.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Bilibili (BILI)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Nope, not interested — “No interest in any Chinese company.”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “China is a huge market, but information on Chinese companies is hard to assess given the susceptibility to central government mandates.”
