HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET.

Lucid $LCID ( 0.0% ), Snap $SNAP ( β–² 2.66% ), and Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( β–² 1.08% ) all reported lackluster earnings after the close today. The after-hours menu just got interesting.

Finally, read to the end for a job post that comes with its own rubric…

β€” Brooks & Cas

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STOCK HEATMAPS

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

Market Movers

YUM BRANDS, PFIZER, HIMS & HERS

$YUM ( β–² 0.78% ) Yum Brands earnings miss estimates as Pizza Hut, KFC struggle in the US (CNBC)

$PFE ( β–Ό 0.28% ) Pfizer Raises Profit View as Cost Cuts Offset Poor Sales Growth (Bloomberg)

$HIMS ( β–Ό 2.0% ) Hims & Hers Health Stock Stumbles After Earnings. Here’s Why. (Barron’s)

$ALC ( β–² 0.48% ) / $STAA ( β–Ό 1.34% ) Alcon strikes $1.5bn deal to acquire ailing rival STAAR Surgical (YF)

$IT ( β–² 0.11% ) Why Gartner Shares Are Falling Today (TradingView)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNBC: President Trump says pharmaceutical imports could face tariffs as high as 250% within 18 months.

Reuters: The US trade deficit fell to a two-year low in June as Trump’s tariffs slashed consumer goods imports and narrowed the China trade gap.

AP: Trump said he has narrowed his list of Fed chair candidates to four, while excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Barron’s: US services sector activity slowed in July, with declines in business activity and hiring, even as input costs continued to rise.

WSJ: The White House is preparing an executive order that would penalize banks for debanking conservative-aligned businesses, including crypto firms.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

HYATT CHECKS OUT

Bringing the McDonald’s Model to Hotels

Ray Croc, the man whose leadership transformed McDonald’s $MCD ( β–Ό 0.07% ) from a single hamburger stand to a global fast food empire, famously said that the company was β€œnot in the hamburger business,” but β€œin the real estate business.”

By overseeing franchises and leasing the locations, Croc was able to supersize McDonald’s expansion plans while minimizing capital expenditures.

Today, a series of hotel chains are following suit, most recently Hyatt Hotels $H ( β–Ό 0.42% ). As the company transitions to an β€œasset-light” business model, analysts are forecasting double-digit upside for shares.

Industry Leaders Go β€œAsset Light”

As Barron’s notes, Hyatt is midway through the transition to an β€œasset-light” business model that larger hotels like Marriott $MAR ( β–² 0.4% ) and Hilton $HLT ( β–² 0.53% ) have largely completed.

The new business model has worked well for them, with Marriott stock up roughly 200% over the last five years, while Hilton shares have returned roughly 240%.

Hyatt shares are up about 175% in that time frame. But Mike Smith, head of Allspring’s Growth equity team, says Hyatt shares are at a discount, pointing out Hyatt’s room for improvement as it follows the playbook that its bigger brothers have laid out.

And Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham issued a $166 price target on the stock, arguing that its high-end customer base justifies the stock trading at a premium rather than a discount. This target implies a 22% gain from today’s close.

Headwinds in Hospitality?

Taken together, analysts expect Hyatt’s earnings to rise 44% in 2026. The next hint as to whether or not it is on track will come Thursday, when the hotel chain reports Q2 earnings.

However, it’s worth noting these forecasts came before July’s jobs report alarmed economists by showing a dramatic weakness in the jobs market that typically spills into consumer discretionary sectors like hospitality first.

Not only that, but these are the same analysts who have overestimated Hyatt’s earnings by as much as 46% in recent quarters. It’s a reminder that the hospitality business is especially hard to predict, as it’s subject to an array of micro and macroeconomic forces no one can see coming.

Are you bullish or bearish on Hyatt Hotels (H) over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

WSJ: A House committee subpoenaed the Justice Department for Epstein records and plans to depose Bill and Hillary Clinton, along with former officials.

Bloomberg: Switzerland’s president arrived in the US to push for a last-minute deal lowering a 39% tariff on Swiss exports.

AP: The US government proposed a new rule to streamline approvals for long-distance drone flights beyond visual line of sight.

Fortune: Who made Fortune’s list of the 100 most powerful businesspeople?

CNN: Economists are sounding recession alarms after July's jobs report showed sharp downward revisions and weak hiring trends.

STREET TWEET

Move fast and prompt correctly.

Zapier’s new standard is simple: if you can’t speak AI, you’re not on the team.

Where do y’all land on the chart? πŸ€”

MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Coinbase $COIN ( β–² 1.0% ) over the next 12 months?

β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡ πŸ‚ Bullish

β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡Β πŸ» Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • πŸ‚ Bullish β€”Β β€œAs long as they print money to band-aid the problem, we will see BTC rise. That will help Coinbase.”

  • 🐻 Bearish β€”Β β€œThere are now several better ways to deal in coins with lower exchange costs and improved privacy and security.”

Are you buying the dip on UnitedHealth $UNH ( β–² 1.47% ) β€” or still waiting for the bottom?

β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡ It’s a buy

β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡β–‡ Waiting for the bottom

Reply

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