HAPPY THURSDAY TO THE STREET
Atlassian (TEAM) is cutting 1,600 jobs to fund its push into AI. CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes flagged three groups the company wants to keep: high performers, workers with transferable skills, and graduates.
In a world where AI is supposed to wipe out entry-level jobs, the most AI-native employees are apparently also the least expensive ones. Atlassian noticed.
🟥 | US stocks finished sharply today as oil prices spiked again amid Middle East turmoil, sending the DJIA to its lowest close of 2026.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Bumble (BMBL) surged after the dating app smashed expectations on both earnings and guidance.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Lucid Group (LCID) fell after its investor day revealed the company does not expect positive cash flow until later this decade.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT
Tesla (TSLA) has now logged two straight years of falling vehicle deliveries, and Wall Street just cut its 2026 growth forecast more than in half, to about 3.8%.
Morgan Stanley and Morningstar are now calling for a third straight annual decline. The cheaper new models are underperforming. The Cybercab is untested at scale. The prediction market is wondering if this quarter will be different.
Market Movers
BLACKSTONE, CF INDUSTRIES, DOLLAR GENERAL
📉 | Blackstone (BX) fell after Morgan Stanley (MS) and Cliffwater imposed withdrawal caps on their multibillion-dollar private credit funds.
📈 | CF Industries (CF) surged to an all-time high as Strait of Hormuz disruptions raised fears of a global fertilizer supply squeeze.
📉 | Dollar General (DG) issued full-year EPS guidance that came in below analyst expectations.
📈 | Petco (WOOF) guided for full-year revenue between flat and up 1.5%, topping the analyst consensus call for a decline.
📉 | Netskope (NTSK) issued weaker-than-expected adjusted loss guidance for both Q1 and the full year.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
STRAIT FLUSH FOR DOW
Stock Spotlight
Tight Strait, Wide Margins
The Rating: Analyst Patrick Cunningham upgraded Dow to Buy, citing Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as catalysts for higher global commodity chemical prices.
The Thesis: With Asian and European chemical producers facing higher feedstock costs, US-based Dow is positioned to capture export demand and expand margins in olefins and polyolefins.
The Follow-On: Cunningham's base case assumes two to three quarters of disruption. He argues that logistics bottlenecks and low inventory levels would sustain pricing momentum even if tensions de-escalate quickly.
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🛢️ | Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy".
Above 15: 80%
Above 20: 46%
Above 30: 33%
🚢 | The US Navy will escort ships through the Strait as soon as “militarily possible”, per Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
🏦 | Federal Reserve rate cut odds have fallen dramatically amid the US-Iran conflict, despite President Trump demanding an immediate cut today.
✈️ | TSA officers are working without pay during another government shutdown, renewing debate over airport security privatization.
🏠 | The Senate passed the largest housing affordability bill in 30 years, including a ban on large institutional investors from buying additional single-family homes.
WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Nike (NKE) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Bullish — “I wanna believe; but that 'horizon line' is way out there on the 'perimeter'.”
