HAPPY THURSDAY TO THE STREET
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) popped 20% after losing money slightly less badly than expected. The steelmaker's Q2 loss beat estimates by a penny, revenue came in ahead, and Q3 EBITDA guidance topped forecasts too. On Wall Street, success isn't about being good. It's about being less bad than the spreadsheet said you'd be.
🟥 | US stocks tumbled as Middle East tensions drove oil higher and disappointing tech earnings rattled investors.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Eli Lilly (LLY) will file for approval of its next-gen obesity drug after trial patients lost up to 22.6% of their body weight.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Alphabet (GOOGL) fell after hiking its 2026 AI capex outlook to as much as $205B.
— Brooks & The Street Sheet Team
MARKET SNAPSHOT
WILL ANTHROPIC'S IPO TOP $1 TRILLION?
Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 in June, Bloomberg reports an October listing is still on track, and secondary trades already peg the Claude maker near $1.2T. That's trillion, with a T, before a single public earnings report. If SpaceX (SPCX) and SK hynix (SKHY) taught traders anything, hot debuts and happy endings are two different trades.
Market Movers
TESLA, LOCKHEED MARTIN, ALBERTSONS
📉 | Tesla (TSLA) reported a 142% capex surge, an earnings miss, and negative free cash flow.
📈 | Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat Q2 estimates and hiked its full-year earnings outlook.
📉 | Albertsons (ACI) missed fiscal Q1 earnings estimates and slashed its full-year outlook.
📈 | Hims & Hers (HIMS) rallied after an FDA panel voted to allow greater pharmacy compounding of peptide BPC-157.
📈 | United Rentals (URI) raised its full-year revenue outlook above Street forecasts.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
BUY NOW, PROFIT LATER
Stock Spotlight
Stock: Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
Firm: Bernstein
Current Price: $71
Price Target: $100
Implied Upside: 41%
Looking for more upside? Street Sheet Research members get 3 stock picks from the Top 30% of analysts with 30%+ implied upside each week. Subscribe today.
Checkout Champion
Bernstein thinks the buy now, pay later pioneer deserves a spot in the cart. The firm initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, and analyst Harshita Rawat argues the company sits at a rare intersection of tailwinds: an expanding addressable market, compounding network effects, and multiple paths to upside.
TAM, Thank You Ma'am
The market itself is the headline act. BNPL still accounts for only about 5% of US e-commerce sales and 1% of overall card spend, per Bernstein, leaving a long runway ahead.
Rawat adds that Affirm's product velocity keeps opening new verticals, channels, and merchants, while giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Shopify (SHOP) lean on BNPL to lift conversion and order values.
Cart Blanche
The Street is largely on board. Of the 34 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy. Shares have gone nowhere in 2026, which Bernstein reads as a setup, not a warning. Some of the best buys are the ones still waiting at checkout.
Do you own any shares of Affirm (AFRM)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🛢️ | US stocks fell after Brent crude broke back above $100 a barrel following a 12th straight night of US strikes on Iran and a reported tanker attack off the Saudi coast.
💼 | Weekly US jobless claims fell to 187K, the lowest level since 1969.
⚖️ | A Florida pastor sued OpenAI, alleging ChatGPT repeatedly told him to skip medical care before a near-fatal pulmonary embolism.
🥚 | Midwest Poultry Services recalled 1.6M eggs sold under Kroger (KR) and other brands across six states over salmonella concerns.
WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Williams Cos. (WMB)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Yup, I’m holding — “I’m up over 200% in 5 years. A solid company that is well managed and has a lot of room to run.”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “An interesting second-order idea. AI needs power, which needs natural gas.”
Disclaimers (if applicable)
