HAPPY SUNDAY TO THE STREET
Chipotle (CMG) CEO Scott Boatwright went viral last week for telling a podcast that no worker would ever say no to a customer asking for more.
The internet promptly held him to it.
A Business Insider reporter ran the experiment at three California stores. Free refills on rice, beans, and fajita veggies.
Steak and guac, on the other hand? That's a $2.50 to $4.10 surcharge per scoop.
In this economy, abundance always has an asterisk.
— Brooks & Cas
GLP-1 LEARNS A SECOND LANGUAGE
What: Investors spent the run-up to last week's earnings fretting about Eli Lilly's (LLY) US pill rollout and softening prices. But they may have been watching the wrong scoreboard. The real action is in the away games.
Why: Novo Nordisk's (NVO) international obesity sales grew 44% in Q1 against just 9% in the mature US market. Lilly's international Mounjaro sales hit $4.4 billion, nearly 4x last year, beating estimates for a fifth straight quarter. Overall, the global GLP-1 market is up 77% over the past year, per Iqvia data.
What Else: Roughly 75% of Lilly's international weight-loss revenue is cash pay. Patients are reaching into their own pockets while health systems catch up. Lilly’s tirzepatide holds patent into the mid-2030s in most markets, while semaglutide has already gone generic in Brazil and India.
Watch: Lilly's next quarterly print, where international Mounjaro is now a $17 billion-plus run-rate business investors used to treat as an afterthought. The desire to lose weight, it turns out, is not a uniquely American affliction.
A16Z'S HISTORY LESSON
What: The AI job apocalypse is canceled, according to one of the firms with the most to lose if it isn't. Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) published a long rebuttal last week calling the doom narrative "unhelpful marketing, bad economics and worse history." A confident pitch from a deeply interested party.
Why: GP David George's argument leans on the lump-of-labor fallacy: economies don't have a fixed amount of work. He cites the spreadsheet, an innovation that lost 1 million bookkeepers, then promptly added 1.5 million financial analysts.
What Else: The current data backs the patient case. An NBER paper found AI adoption hasn't meaningfully changed total employment. That said, Stanford researchers found 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles saw a 16% relative employment decline since ChatGPT. A Quinnipiac survey in March put 70% of Americans expecting fewer jobs from AI, up from 56% the prior year.
Watch: OpenAI's GDPVal benchmark and Scale AI's Remote Labor Index, where the best models still complete just 2.5% of multi-day human freelance tasks. Pace, not direction, is the whole argument.
META’S STOCK PRICE: DISCOUNT OR WARNING?
What: Meta Platforms (META) trades near its lowest forward P/E in three years, around 18x. The discount to Alphabet is the widest since 2022. A bargain… in a bin with a bright red sign.
Why: Revenue grew 33% in Q1, with AI juicing ad conversions 6%. But daily users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger declined sequentially for the first time since Meta began reporting the metric in 2019. Can AI squeeze more revenue per user? That’s the lingering question, but the math doesn’t add up.
What Else: Unlike Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), or Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta has no cloud, no e-commerce, no enterprise software cushion. Capex was just bumped $10 billion to roughly $135 billion. Long-term debt sits above $57 billion, up from $10 billion in late 2022, before counting last week's $25 billion bond or a $27 billion off-balance-sheet Louisiana data center. New Street's Pierre Ferragu put it bluntly: "Meta spends more than it can afford."
Watch: Q2 daily active users and any update on Muse Spark traction. Meta's smartglasses are growing fast off a small base. But for now, the bright red sale sign sits alongside some bright red flags.









