HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET.
“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING!” Trump warned on Truth Social—then barked “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!” at his own Energy Department for good measure. That public smack-talk, plus Iran’s surprisingly low-impact swipe at a U.S. base, sent crude prices skidding 7% and left traders wondering who’s really pulling the strings: OPEC or @realDonaldTrump. With black gold on sale, airlines, shippers, and any company that guzzles fuel filled up on gains, while chip-stock dip buyers joined the party just because they could.
🟥 | US stocks closed solidly higher as cooling oil and cooler heads in the Gulf sent the Dow up 0.9%, the S&P 500 up 1%, and the Nasdaq up 0.9%.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 8.23% ) stock jumped after launching $4.20 robotaxi rides in Austin, entering direct competition with Waymo.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Super Micro $SMCI ( ▼ 9.78% ) shares fell after announcing a $2B convertible note offering, raising dilution concerns.
— Brooks & Cas
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STOCK HEATMAPS
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz
Market Movers
NORTHERN TRUST, DOORDASH, SHOPIFY
$NTRS ( ▲ 8.01% ) Northern Trust says it is fully committed to remaining independent (Reuters)
$DASH ( ▲ 4.47% ) DoorDash Stock Rating Upgraded to Strong Buy by Raymond James (GuruFocus)
$LLY ( ▲ 1.04% ) / $VERV ( ▲ 0.45% ) Eli Lilly to Acquire Verve Therapeutics for Up to $1.3 Billion (WSJ)
$APP ( ▲ 3.3% ) AppLovin (NasdaqGS:APP) Reports Robust Q1 Earnings Despite Price Dip Over Last Quarter (Simply Wall St)
$AMGN ( ▼ 5.84% ) Low start dose of Amgen experimental weight-loss drug limits side effects (Reuters)
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
Axios: The FTC approved Omnicom’s $13.5B merger with IPG, but barred the ad giants from coordinating ad placements based on political views.
AP: Trump Media (DJT) will buy back up to $400M in stock after a 46% drop this year, aiming to boost value and regain investor confidence.
NBC News: Venetians protest Jeff Bezos' Venice wedding, decrying overtourism and saying billionaires like the Amazon founder aren’t welcome.
CNBC: U.S. House bans Meta’s WhatsApp on staff devices over data privacy concerns; Meta strongly disputes the move.
Axios: Ford pushes forward on $3B Michigan EV battery plant using China’s CATL tech, risking $900M in tax credits if Congress scraps subsidies.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
THE SICKEST STOCK ON WALL STREET?
A Humbled Health Care Giant
Last month, UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▼ 0.44% ) was the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500, a stunning collapse for an investor darling that for years could do no wrong.
With shares down around 40% for the year, America’s largest health insurer faces some serious headwinds. From the surprise resignation of its CEO, a miss on quarterly earnings estimates, and news reports of a probe by the Justice Department into potential Medicare fraud, investors have a lot of reasons to be nervous.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Deutsche Bank $DB analyst George Hill is sticking with a Buy rating and thinks the issues are manageable.
Hope for UnitedHealth?
UnitedHealth’s business segments are famously opaque. Its various arms interact with each other in complex dealings that make it hard to evaluate the fundamentals. Hill believes increased transparency is what the company needs. “Sunlight is the best disinfectant,” he said.
Investors agree. Returning CEO, Stephen Hemsley, told a company meeting this month that he understands their concerns. People want a "fully transparent" company, he said — one that is also reliable and performs well.
That's going to mean a big cultural shift. For example, UnitedHealth built its empire by acquiring smaller companies. However, its 2024 annual report doesn't tell us how many acquisitions it made that year.
Bargain or Falling Knife?
When a stock has fallen as much as UnitedHealth, investors may wonder whether further shocks are still to come. It's like trying to catch a falling knife.
One source of optimism is UnitedHealth's continued dividend payments. This summer, its board authorized a dividend of $2.21 per share, up about 5% on last quarter.
But dividend payments alone won't restore investor confidence. It remains to be seen whether the company can check itself out of the ICU.
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ON OUR RADAR
TechCrunch: New York plans a 1 GW nuclear plant, backed by NYPA and private partners, as Gov. Hochul pushes to cut fossil fuel use statewide.
NPR: U.S. home sales just had their slowest May since 2009, as soaring prices and weak affordability keep buyers sidelined.
CNBC: GOP’s budget bill could leave 5.4M more Americans with medical debt, rising as high as $22,800 per family, per Third Way report.
AP: Support for solar, wind, and EV tax credits is falling among Democrats and independents, per new AP-NORC poll on green energy.
CNBC: Airlines cancel and divert Middle East flights after Iran strikes U.S. base in Qatar, with airspace closed in multiple Gulf nations.
FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Berkshire Hathaway over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
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