The late innings of a bull market are supposed to feel good — until they don’t.

Leon Cooperman says AI stocks are “ridiculously high”, and the Buffett Indicator agrees.

His warning: this is the stage where rallies get fueled more by fear of missing out than by profits.

Finally, read to the end for why investors are waking up when September ends…

— Brooks & Cas

Don't let it go to waste tomorrow.

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$COIN ( ▲ 2.57% ) Coinbase Joins the Billion-Dollar Lending Club — Growth or Brewing Risk? (TipRanks)

$PTON ( ▼ 3.67% ) Peloton revamps equipment, launches commercial unit and raises prices ahead of holidays (CNBC)

$NKE ( ▲ 6.41% ) Nike's Turnaround Looks Like It's Going Well—But Tariffs Could Be a Stumbling Block (Investopedia)

$NFLX ( ▼ 2.34% ) Netflix Stock Slides. Elon Musk Says He’s Canceling His Subscription. (Barron’s)

$LAC ( ▲ 23.29% ) Lithium Americas Spikes As U.S. Confirms Stake After MP Materials, Intel Investments (IBD)

Reuters: Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.34% ) launched Microsoft 365 Premium at $19.99 a month, bundling Copilot AI across Outlook, Excel, and Word.

The Hill: Five states sued Zillow $Z ( ▼ 4.63% ) and Redfin, alleging a $100M deal violated antitrust laws by stifling rental market competition.

CNBC: Google $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.74% ) laid off over 100 US-based design and cloud research employees, halving some teams.

TechCrunch: Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.48% ) launched Amazon Grocery, a new private-label brand merging Fresh and Happy Belly, with most items priced under $5.

NBC News: Walmart $WMT ( ▼ 1.07% ) will remove synthetic dyes from all private-label food brands, including Great Value, by 2027.

With the federal government shutdown underway, Wall Street is assessing which contractors could face the most pressure. TD Cowen said in a note that while a typical impasse lasting a few weeks is unlikely to cause lasting harm, prolonged gridlock could slow contract awards, backlog conversion, and cash flow.

Analyst Gautam Khanna wrote that “risk is fairly minor to sales and free cash flow,” though he acknowledged that uncertainty has investors on edge.

Cowen highlighted CACI International $CACI ( ▲ 3.28% ), Leidos $LDOS ( ▲ 1.41% ), and Parsons $PSN ( ▲ 2.8% ) as relatively well-positioned.

These companies enter the shutdown with solid funding buffers that should help avoid material disruption. Parsons also benefits from a sizable non-US business, further insulating results from Washington politics.

For these names, Cowen sees the shutdown as more of a near-term distraction than a fundamental threat, barring a lengthy standoff.

By contrast, Booz Allen Hamilton $BAH ( ▲ 2.65% ) and Science Applications International $SAIC ( ▲ 1.77% ) may be more vulnerable.

Booz Allen’s relatively low-funded backlog and aggressive guidance leave it more fragile if the shutdown drags on. SAIC has stronger backlog coverage, but its reliance on civilian agencies and need for new wins to hit fiscal 2027 goals increases its exposure.

Still, both stocks have recently pulled back sharply. Booz Allen is down nearly 7% in the past month, while SAIC has fallen more than 14%. Cowen suggested that this selloff may give the pair more room to recover once a resolution becomes visible.

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AP: Gold surged to a record $3,858 per ounce as the US government shutdown fueled safe-haven demand.

Politico: Trump is delaying 100% tariffs on brand-name drugs while negotiating price-cut deals with major pharmaceutical companies.

CNBC: Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.34% ) raised the Xbox Game Pass Ultimate price 50% to $29.99 per month, effective immediately, alongside plan restructurings.

TechCrunch: Periodic Labs emerged from stealth with $300 million in seed funding from top tech investors, including Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.35% ), Bezos, and Schmidt.

QZ: McDonald’s $MCD ( ▼ 1.11% ) will relaunch its Monopoly contest digitally on Oct. 6 after 10 years, requiring loyalty program membership.

When September shines, Q4 follows.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but historically, the S&P 500 has tended to build on September strength. Following the top 15 Septembers, Q4 was positive 86% of the time, with an average gain of 5.5%.

Are you bullish or bearish on Etsy $ETSY ( ▲ 6.18% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

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