HAPPY THURSDAY TO THE STREET.
US markets are closed today for Juneteenth, its fourth year as a federal holiday. But we’re still here, committed to keeping you informed and entertained, even when we can’t be actively trading. Besides, an abbreviated newsletter is a lot easier to write with a strawberry soda in hand. Happy Teenth!
— Brooks & Cas
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OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
AP: President Trump officially signed an executive order extending TikTok’s US deadline by 90 days.
Fortune: Trump’s pending Iran decision — due within two weeks — could spike oil prices and complicate his pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
CNBC: SpaceX’s Starship exploded during a routine test at its Texas Starbase, the fourth such failure this year. No injuries were reported.
Bloomberg: An EU court adviser rejected Google’s appeal of a €4.1B fine, the tech giant’s latest antitrust setback.
CNN: Speaking of Google, Waymo is resuming robotaxi testing in NYC, but still cannot legally offer driverless rides to paying passengers.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
SHIFTING SANDS
Gulf Gold Rush
US tech companies are raking in billions from the Middle East’s AI boom. In the wake of President Trump’s diplomatic tour, countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are racing to build local AI ecosystems by funding data centers, buying top-end chips, and partnering with American firms.
For companies shut out of China, the Gulf is offering a rare open door. Companies like Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.69% ) and AMD $AMD ( ▼ 2.26% ) are eager for new markets, and the Gulf is spending freely.
But can the checks keep clearing? That’s less certain.
Mixed Track Record
The Middle East has a history of announcing ambitious projects that fall short.
Neom, Saudi Arabia’s $370 billion desert city, was launched in 2017 but remains mired in delays and ballooning costs. Now, some analysts worry the same fate could meet today’s flashy AI investments, per WSJ reporting.
These projects aren’t being built for profit alone. Gulf governments want to establish national champions and develop Arabic-language AI. That makes the long-term business case murkier. If priorities shift or leadership changes, yesterday’s mega deal could become tomorrow’s write-down.
Cloudy Horizon
There is also the issue of US policy. The Biden administration previously floated chip export quotas to the Middle East, aimed at preventing backdoor access to China. Those limits were later dropped by the Trump administration. But they could easily return under a new president, or amid growing security concerns.
Rising tensions between Israel and Iran create more uncertainty. A wider conflict could disrupt logistics, stall projects, or shift government focus away from tech. The Gulf may be the next AI frontier, but it is not without fault lines. Investors chasing growth here may want to brace for turbulence.
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ON OUR RADAR
Reuters: Canada will impose new tariffs to counter global overcapacity and unfair trade in steel and aluminum.
AP: Russia’s economy minister warned the country is on the brink of recession, despite prior growth fueled by defense spending.
Stock Titan: AI software firm LeddarTech will be delisted from the Nasdaq after filing for bankruptcy in Canada.
WSJ: The share of Americans working multiple jobs hit a post-2000s recession high, as side hustles shift from passion to necessity.
Fortune: Nearly 25% of Americans are now “functionally unemployed”, earning under $25K or no longer seeking work.
WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Which stock do you think will outperform over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ Tesla (TSLA)
▇▇▇▇▇▇ Xiaomi (XIACY)
And, in response, you said:
Tesla (TSLA) — “[Xiaomi is] too focused on car sales only. Clearly little margin for profit on EVs but Elon is an innovative person especially in the Satellite dominance for example. My money is on him not the liberals trying to destroy him because of ideological driven hatred.”
Xiaomi (XIACY) — “Waiting (still) for the Tesla bubble to pop. It will, but when?”
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