✅ Written by Austin DeNoce, Markets Reporter, Walk-On Holdings

✅ Edited by Casimir Stone, Creative Director Walk-On Holdings

For the Second Week In June, the Markets Will Be Watching…

…the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, which will be announced following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting from June 11-12.

Let’s get this out of the way up top: Rates aren’t getting cut this month. The Fed has held rates steady for six straight meetings, and markets are pricing in a more than 99% chance that this remains true in June, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The central bank predicted three rate cuts this year in its Q4 2023 dot plot projections, and reiterated those expectations in its Q1 2024 forecast as well. However, that has become increasingly less likely as inflation and jobs data continues to come in hotter-than-expected. Markets are now torn as to whether there will even be a single rate cut before year’s end.

To that end, investors won’t be watching for the latest policy decision, so much as for the subsequent signals of what future decisions may be. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech, which should illuminate whether the Fed is leaning more hawkish or dovish in light of recent data.

Notably, June’s meeting also marks the release of Q2 2024 dot plot. In their speeches, Fed bankers are typically careful to only give short-term outlooks, and have repeatedly reiterated projections can shift from report to report based on changes in the data. However, once per quarter, the committee releases its “dot plot” compiling consensus projections for interest rate decisions through the year’s end, giving investors a rare longer-term look at Fed policy.

With the past two releases both showing three rate cuts projected for 2024, this latest forecast could either lead to a resurgence in investor confidence, or confirm their fears.

Also on the economic calendar…

Monday, June 10

No notable economic or company earnings reports scheduled.

Tuesday, June 11

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism index.

In earnings, software giant Oracle (ORCL) will report.

Wednesday, June 12

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI), which informally kicks off each month’s run of inflation prints.

This data, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) later in the month, largely sets the tone for the Fed’s interest rate decisions. With the CPI due the same day as the Fed’s policy decision, investors may not have to wait long to hear how central bankers feel about it.

In earnings, semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) will report.

Thursday, June 13

The May Producer Price Index (PPI), a key measure of wholesale inflation. These increases in producers’ costs will typically make their way into consumer prices, albeit on a slight delay, so the PPI often serves as a sneak peek of future CPI releases.

In earnings, AI leader Adobe (ADBE) will report.

Friday, June 14

The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, a key temperature check on American households’ economic optimism — or lack thereof.