HAPPY THURSDAY TO THE STREET.

Silicon Valley’s odd couple just made it Facebook-official. Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.49% ) is writing a $5B check for roughly 4% of Intel $INTC ( ▲ 22.77% ) and teaming up to co-develop x86 data-center CPUs and PC SoCs.

It’s less about cash than clout. The truce between frenemies gives Nvidia a smoother on-ramp to the x86 world and hands Intel the credibility buyers (and Washington) needed to say “yes.” One headline later, Intel went from punchline to plotline.

  • 🟩 | US stocks hit record highs today as the Fed’s easing path lifted sentiment, with smaller equities leading gains.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 6.27% ) shares jumped after its obesity pill showed strong late-stage results matching Wegovy’s weight-loss efficacy.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Cracker Barrel $CBRL ( ▼ 7.64% ) shares fell after quarterly profit missed estimates, though revenue slightly beat Wall Street expectations.

Finally, read to the end for the dark horse who could end up running the Fed.

— Brooks & Cas

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STOCK HEATMAPS

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

Market Movers

ALLSTATE, BULLISH, DARDEN RESTAURANTS

$ALL ( ▲ 4.27% ) Focus Partners Wealth Purchases 19,895 Shares of The Allstate Corporation (MarketBeat)

$BLSH ( ▲ 20.72% ) Bullish stock jumps 10% as key approval paves way for crypto exchange US expansion (YF)

$DRI ( ▼ 7.69% ) Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants disappoints on earnings but hikes sales outlook (CNBC)

$IONQ ( ▲ 2.09% ) IonQ Stock Rises on Quantum Space Deal With U.S. Department of Energy (AskTraders)

$CRWD ( ▲ 12.82% ) CrowdStrike stock price target raised to $430 from $405 at Evercore ISI (Investing.com)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNBC: American Express $AXP ( ▲ 1.69% ) raised its Platinum card annual fee to $895 while boosting perks to $3,500 in yearly credits.

AP: The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.41%, its lowest since October, after the Fed’s recent rate cut.

TipRanks: Google $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.0% ) and the DOJ filed competing proposals on search antitrust remedies, with Judge Mehta set to decide enforcement terms.

CNN: Tesla is exploring new door handle designs after reports of trapped passengers in crashes prompted a federal investigation.

CNBC: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the company’s $5B Intel stake “an incredible investment,” highlighting new AI chip collaboration.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

RV AND BOAT STOCKS SET SAIL AFTER FED MOVE

Fed Cut, New Currents

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since December on Wednesday, lowering the federal funds rate by a quarter point. With borrowing costs finally easing, Citi $C ( ▲ 0.64% ) says some of the biggest winners could be found far from Wall Street: in powersports, RVs, and boats.

“These companies have far and away been the biggest victims of the ‘higher-for-longer’ rate regime, and stand to gain the most in a falling rate environment,” analyst James Hardiman wrote this week. He pointed to RV makers Thor Industries $THO ( ▼ 0.37% ), Winnebago $WGO ( ▲ 2.12% ), and Camping World $CWH ( ▲ 1.33% ), along with boat names Brunswick $BC ( ▲ 0.77% ) and MarineMax $HZO ( ▲ 1.13% ), as “direct ways to play the rate-cut trade.”

On the Road and Water

Thor and Brunswick already stand out, Hardiman noted, each up about 20% and 16%, respectively, in the last three months on expectations of a policy shift. That compares with roughly 11% for the S&P 500 over the same stretch. Investors view these names as rate proxies because they rely heavily on consumer financing, making demand more sensitive to borrowing costs.

Camping World and MarineMax may also benefit more directly from short-term rate reductions, given their wholesale financing exposure. Hardiman said these stocks have not been bid up as much as others, leaving room if lower rates feed through to sales.

Watching the Yields

The last time the Fed cut rates in 2024, these same stocks rallied into the decision but sold off afterward when 10-year Treasury yields failed to fall. Hardiman said the reaction in long rates will again be key in determining whether Wednesday’s momentum holds.

For now, with a confirmed cut in hand, Citi sees powersports and leisure vehicles as one of the clearer ways to position for the next leg of the rate trade.

Are you bullish or bearish on powersports, RVs, and boats over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

Axios: While the Fed cut rates by a quarter point, new Trump appointee Stephen Miran is pushing for deeper, faster cuts.

Reuters: A U.S. judge upheld the validity of Venezuela’s defaulted 2020 bonds tied to Citgo, boosting creditor seizure efforts.

CNN: Trump asked the Supreme Court to let him fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, challenging central bank independence after rate cuts.

The Verge: Hyundai pledged $2.7 billion to expand its Georgia EV battery plant despite last week’s ICE raid detaining hundreds.

CNBC: Automakers are increasingly relying on wealthy buyers as cars over $50,000 nearly doubled since 2019, locking out lower-income consumers.

STREET TWEET

The Miran whispers.

Whispers about Steve Miran as a possible Powell replacement are growing louder. He’s not on most shortlists, which may be exactly why he’s worth watching.

WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Walmart $WMT ( ▼ 0.64% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐂 Bullish — “It's Walmart.”

  • 🐂 Bullish — “A good hedge against any direction the economy goes, and the same-day delivery captures higher-end customers who won’t enter the store.”

  • 🐂 Bullish — “WM is implementing AI as we all know which will eliminate jobs. All businesses implementing AI will cause job losses, which will reduce home income, so folks will have to shop at the lower-end stores. WM is a lower-end store, so they should benefit going forward.”

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