HAPPY WEDNESDAY TO THE STREET
Bill Ackman just rang the bell on his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) dreams, and the market handed him a reality check. Pershing Square USA (PSUS) opened well below its $50 IPO price and traded down 18% today, raising just $5B against an original $25B ambition.
Turns out being the next Warren Buffett is harder when you're not Warren Buffett.
🟥 | US stocks finished near the flatline, following the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, and likely the last FOMC speech from current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Bloom Energy (BE) surged after beating Q1 estimates and guiding above expectations, garnering institutional and meme investor interest alike.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Robinhood (HOOD) tumbled after Q1 earnings and revenue missed the Street.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WILL ELON WIN HIS CASE AGAINST OPENAI?
Elon Musk took the stand for round two and called himself "a fool" for handing OpenAI $38M in seed money. He's now seeking $150B in damages and Sam Altman's removal from the board, while the judge keeps reining him in mid-answer. Traders give him coin-flip odds. Are they flipping a silver trillion-dollar?
Market Movers
NXP SEMICONDUCTORS, BROWN-FORMAN, STARBUCKS
📈 | NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) popped after a Q1 beat and current-quarter guidance above consensus.
📉 | Brown-Forman (BF.B) tanked after merger talks with Pernod Ricard fell apart.
📈 | Starbucks (SBUX) jumped after raising its full-year sales and earnings outlook.
📉 | Teradyne (TER) slid after Q1 results despite a top and bottom line beat.
📈 | Seagate Technology (STX) surged on strong fiscal Q4 revenue and earnings guidance.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
ROUTINE VICTORY
Stock Spotlight
Stock: Visa (V)
Firm: Wolfe Research
Current Price: $336
Price Target: $395
Implied Upside: 17.5%
Looking for ideas with higher upside potential? Street Sheet Research members get 3 stock picks from the Top 30% of analysts with 30%+ implied upside each week. Subscribe today.
Stoppage-Time Tailwind
Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller is betting the World Cup turns into a Visa payday.
He raised his target after the payments giant beat fiscal Q2 estimates and lifted full-year guidance, partly on the boost expected from FIFA's summer tournament.
Value Added
Visa is the official payments partner of the event. More than 1.2M visitors are expected to flood the New York and New Jersey area, per FIFA. They will all need to swipe something.
Peller pointed to broad-based growth in value-added services as another reason to stay long. He sees a sizable runway ahead, especially as agentic AI fuels new fraud detection demand.
Cross-border e-commerce spending is also picking up the slack from softer travel volumes tied to the Iran war, the analyst noted.
The Buy Card
Wall Street is overwhelmingly long Visa. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy.
Shares are in the red year-to-date but rallied sharply after the recent earnings beat. With kickoff approaching, Wolfe thinks Visa's payday is far from full time.
Do you own any shares of Visa (V)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🏛️ | The Fed held rates steady, but four central bankers dissented, the most divided vote since 1992.
🗣️ | In his speech, Powell said the White House left him “no choice but to stay” on as governor after his term as chair ends, and said rate hike odds are rising as energy’s surge has yet to peak.
Kalshi Odds: “Next Fed rate hike?”
Before July 2026: 5%
Before 2027: 19%
Before July 2027: 42%
🪑 | The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair on a 13-11 party-line vote.
🛢️ | Brent crude topped $118 after President Trump vowed to maintain the US naval blockade on Iran until a nuclear deal is reached.
💸 | PayPal (PYPL) is spinning Venmo into its own standalone segment as Stripe and other potential buyers circle.
TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Nope, not interested — “I’ve walked out of a Ferguson showroom too many times. Their inept sales people don’t realize Ferguson has a great website. I would never buy their stock until management understands their sales force are sleepwalkers!”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “Just remodeling a bathroom. Ferguson had everything we looked for on their website, but a better price at local HD, Lowes, and Menards.”
