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HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET

Americans are raiding their 401(k)s at a record pace.

6% of Vanguard's clients took a hardship withdrawal in 2025, up from 4.8% the year before. Each early withdrawal comes with a 10% penalty, a tax hit on gains, and years of compounding quietly erased from the table.

On the other hand, automatic enrollment is bringing more workers into retirement plans than ever, which may be responsible for the higher withdrawal rate. A new record for saving for retirement and raiding it at the same time.

  • 🟨 | US stocks closed near the flatline today after whipsawing earlier in the session on further US-Iran developments.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) surged on a fresh upgrade from Bank of America (BAC), citing stabilized margins, revenue cadence, and materially reduced downside risk.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) fell after announcing that CEO Eric Green will retire later this year.

— Brooks & Cas

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MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales

PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT

Trump says he won't sign a single piece of legislation until the Senate passes the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote nationwide.

The problem: the bill needs 60 votes to clear the Senate, Democrats are unanimously opposed, and Republicans aren’t unified behind it either.

Here’s how prediction markets are currently pricing the odds that the President’s gambit ultimately pays off.

Market Movers

BIONTECH, VERTEX, UWM

📉 | BioNTech (BNTX) cratered after co-founders Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci announced they are leaving the company to establish an independent venture.

📈 | Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) met its primary goals in a late-stage trial for a drug treating a chronic kidney condition.

📈 | UWM Holdings (UWMC) issued better-than-expected Q1 revenue guidance.

📈 | Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rose on a fresh upgrade after dodging patent infringement charges.

📉 | United Natural Foods (UNFI) missed fiscal second-quarter revenue estimates and cut its full-year revenue guidance.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

R2 OR NOT R2

Stock Spotlight

  • Stock: Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

  • Firm: TD Cowen (TD)

  • Current Price: $16.5

  • Price Target: $20

  • Implied Upside: 21%

A Deep-Dive Worth Driving

The Rating: TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli upgraded Rivian to Buy and raised his price target ahead of the R2 SUV launch in H1 2026.

The Thesis: Michaeli's demand model puts full-scale R2 sales at 212,000 to 335,000 units annually (well above consensus) with the vehicle's early L3/L4 hardware positioning as a durable competitive edge in a recovering US EV market.

The Follow-On: Rivian is in the red year-to-date. With 12 of 30 analysts still at Hold, Michaeli is betting against the broader Street once the R2 hits the road.

Are you bullish or bearish on Rivian Automotive (RIVN) over the next 12 months?

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OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

🤖 | Meta (META) acquired Moltbook, the viral social network built exclusively for AI agents.

🛢️ | A deleted social media post from the US Energy Secretary that falsely claimed the Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices lower.

⚖️ | A federal judge granted Amazon (AMZN) a temporary injunction blocking Perplexity's Comet AI browser from scraping its website.

🏥 | A bipartisan congressional committee found that alleged Medicare Advantage overpayments inflated seniors' 2025 Part B premiums by $13.4B.

💰 | Billionaire investor Bill Ackman filed to take Pershing Square public alongside new closed-end fund Pershing Square USA.

MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on PetroChina (PCCYF) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

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