HAPPY SUNDAY TO THE STREET
Prediction markets, take notice. ETFs are reheating your nachos.
This year, 466 new ETFs have launched.
Among those, one bets on UFO disclosure (0.99% fee). Another holds bitcoin… but only after the closing bell.
Average expense ratio? More than 20x a basic index fund.
In 2026, even investing in funds feels a lot like a crapshoot.
— Brooks & Cas
RETAIL’S ROCKET RIDE
What: Retail finally gets in on the ground floor of something… if a $2 trillion market cap pre-debut counts as the ground floor. SpaceX filed its S-1, and Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood (HOOD), SoFi (SOFI), and Morgan Stanley's (MS) E*Trade will offer shares at the IPO price alongside institutions.
Why: The mechanism is forced buying. SpaceX could debut at a $2 trillion market cap, and ERShares CEO Joel Shulman told Barron's that early inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 could compress the usual 12-to-18-month waiting period and trigger tens of billions in index demand right out of the gate.
What Else: The pre-IPO door has been open, just not cheaply. The Baron Partners Fund, ARK Venture, ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR), and the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) all carry SpaceX exposure. Many already ripped on IPO news. Destiny Tech100 popped 22% in a single session.
Watch: For an official IPO announcement. Mergermarket's Samuel Kerr warned retail against chasing pre-IPO shares this late. The company’s valuation may reach deep space before it even launches.
MOVING ON FROM MAHA
What: The FDA is losing leadership faster than a startup losing engineers, and biotech investors have shrugged. On Friday, drug-division head Tracy Beth Høeg resigned, the fifth person in that seat since Trump took office. Commissioner Marty Makary is already gone.
Why: Investors have demoted political risk below rates, clinical data, and earnings. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) plunged 30% by April 2025 after Trump's win, then ripped more than 70% from that bottom. Acting FDA head Kyle Diamantas, a former Abbott Laboratories (ABT) lawyer, reads as predictable. Boring is bullish.
What Else: Late last year, 68% of surveyed investors said they didn't expect Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Makary, and vaccines chief Vinay Prasad to still be in their roles by end of 2026. Only Kennedy remains. Prasad's March exit accelerated a rebound already underway. Even Moderna (MRNA), the Covid-shot poster child, has surged.
Watch: XBI versus the S&P.
BUY THE WALL, NOT THE PANEL
What: The solar boom is real. But the solar trade may be a trap. China's solar exports doubled from February to March, hitting a record 68 gigawatts, with 50 countries setting all-time-high import months. Nigeria's Chinese panel imports jumped 519% as households dumped diesel generators.
Why: China is producing twice the solar components the world needs, and the flood has gutted profitability. Longi Green Energy lost roughly $280 million in Q1. JinkoSolar (JKS) and Trina Solar also bled red. UC San Diego's Michael Davidson told the WSJ no country can compete on price. The trade is in the trade barriers.
What Else: Geography is the strategy. The EU banned funding for projects using Chinese inverters, and Germany's SMA Solar has run hard this year. US-listed names insulated by tariffs are catching the protectionist bid. SolarEdge (SEDG) is up nearly 100% in 2026. Enphase Energy (ENPH) is up about 90%. Sunrun (RUN), purely domestic and post-tax-credit, is down on the year.
