Does Wall Street still have that “wolf” in it? Not exactly.

Famed short-seller David Einhorn headlined a downtown Manhattan Tax Day Party, the type of function that would have gotten cinematically raucous in the ‘80s or ‘90s. That might be why attendees were discouraged from asking him about his next big short, and instead pressed him on whether Wall Street still has “rizz”.

But his verdict was lackluster: he has "no game" and introduces himself as "David from Wisconsin." Somewhere, Bill Ackman is workshopping new pickup lines.

— Brooks & Cas

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but Trump says the US blockade stays until a broader deal is signed.

Leave it to prediction markets to make sense of these typically mixed messages. Traders are now pricing the world's most consequential bottleneck as if it could clear before summer… with one small catch.

Everyone first has to agree on what "open" actually means.

📉 | Alcoa (AA) posted a Q1 earnings and revenue miss.

📈 | Strategy (MSTR) gained as Bitcoin topped $77,000 and its holdings returned to profit.

📉 | APA Corporation (APA) and other energy firms slumped on the above news of the Strait (potentially) reopening to commercial shipping.

📈 | Royal Caribbean (RCL) and other travel stocks rallied on the same reports.

📉 | Badger Meter (BMI) tumbled nearly 20% on lackluster Q1 EPS, revenue, and operating income.

Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette put Affirm atop the firm's short list, keeping an Overweight rating and a $76 price target.

Faucette believes private credit jitters and slowing growth concerns have been overcooked, with the “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) giant sitting on an unusually strong catalyst path.

Faucette's thesis leans heavily on Affirm's Investor Day in May, where he expects management to raise medium-term targets across gross merchandise value, revenue less transaction costs margin, and adjusted operating income margin.

Public asset-backed securities spreads have also held steady, a leading indicator that Morgan Stanley reads as a green light for forward-flow demand.

Peers with choppier credit histories are still raising capital intra-quarter, which Faucette says puts AFRM's funding firmly out of danger.

Wall Street is mostly on board. Of the 31 analysts covering the name, 23 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, with the remainder at Hold.

Shares are deep in the red year to date, but the stock has clawed back meaningful ground over the past month. For investors who bought the dip, it's starting to affirm itself.

💸 | The CBP’s new refund portal for up to $166B in illegally collected tariffs goes live Monday. It’s more likely to impact companies than consumers.

🏦 | Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled the central bank may stay on hold as the Iran war threatens a lasting inflation shock and hiring sits near zero.

🤖 | The White House will meet with Anthropic’s CEO about the company's new Mythos model, which it says can surpass human cybersecurity experts.

🚗 | Ford (F) is recalling up to 1.39M 2015-2017 F-150 pickups over a transmission signal fault that can trigger sudden downshifts.

💊 | Obesity drug developer Kailera Therapeutics (KLRA) raised $625M in one of biotech's largest-ever IPOs.

Do you own any shares of Ciena Corporation (CIEN)?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested

And, in response, you said (very enthusiastically, we might add):

Where were all the bears? We know you’re out there. Defend your theses! We love contrarian takes.