HAPPY WEDNESDAY TO THE STREET.
Mixed signals from the White House? Never in a million years!
Yet here we are (again) as reports surface that President Trump is planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. At the same time, in the president’s own words, he’s “not planning on doing anything”.
Guess it’s just quantum mechanics in action: Schrödinger's Fed Chair.
🟩 | US stocks ultimately ticked up as the market tried to puzzle out the state of the proverbial cat in the box.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 0.44% ) led the S&P 500 after downplaying tariff concerns following a Q2 earnings beat.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: ASML $ASML ( ▼ 1.39% ) melted down after the chipmaker warned it might not see any growth next year, blaming the macro environment.
Finally, read to the end for a surprising twist in the hunt for the next unicorn…
— Brooks & Cas
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STOCK HEATMAPS
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz
Market Movers
ARM, MORGAN STANLEY, WARNER BROS
$ARM ( ▼ 0.28% ) Arm upgraded to Outperform at BNP Paribas (SeekingAlpha)
$MS ( ▼ 0.05% ) Morgan Stanley shares fall despite earnings beat, as investment banking revenue shrinks (Reuters)
$WBD ( ▼ 0.7% ) ‘Superman’ Dominates Box Office In Much-Needed $122 Million Win For Warner Bros. (Forbes)
$ENPH ( ▲ 2.17% ) / $SEDG ( ▲ 5.41% ) Enphase Energy, SolarEdge downgraded at J.P. Morgan, with Sunrun as preferred pick (SeekingAlpha)
$BMNR ( ▲ 1.07% ) Bitmine shares soar as billionaire Thiel reveals 9.1% stake (YF)
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
CNBC: Trump denied plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling it “highly unlikely”, despite reportedly saying the opposite the night before.
BI: Deutsche Bank warned that, if Trump fires the Fed Chair, it could trigger turmoil in currency and bond markets.
AP: US producer prices were flat in June, with wholesale inflation up just 2.3% year-over-year, easing inflationary concerns.
Reuters: Ford $F ( ▲ 0.09% ) recalled some 694,000 SUVs in the US due to a fuel injector defect that could cause engine fires.
Fortune: With Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.55% ) shares down double digits in 2025, a research firm called on CEO Tim Cook to step aside.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
TAXI TO THE MOON?
Analysts Call for a Double
Several big banks are ready to pony up for Pony AI $PONY ( ▼ 2.11% ).
Bank of America $BAC ( ▲ 0.64% ) and Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 0.34% ) are both substantially bullish on the Chinese robotaxi stock. Goldman’s target of $26 implies a whopping 98% upside from today’s close. And BofA isn’t far behind, with its analyst Ming Hsun Lee expecting a move to $21.
Both firms, needless to say, rate the stock a Buy.
Profit Curve Coming Into View
BofA’s optimism follows a recent meeting with management, where the firm highlighted Pony AI’s shift into scaled production.
The company is already rolling out its Gen 7 vehicle and expects to reach 1,000 robotaxis by year-end. With China leading global demand, Pony AI is doubling down where usage is densest.
Goldman Sachs believes 2026 will mark the company’s first full year of positive gross margin. The firm’s Allen Chang and Verena Jeng see it hitting 12%, rising to 29% by 2027.
All Signals Green
The bullish targets come as shares of Pony AI are down nearly 14% in 2025.
Despite, or perhaps because of the recent sell-off, sentiment is uniformly positive. All analysts polled by FactSet currently rate the stock a Buy, with a 68% average upside baked into their price targets.
If production holds and margin forecasts pan out, the rally could accelerate. To hear BoA and Goldman tell it, interested investors may want to put the pedal to the metal now, to beat the rush. In autonomous driving, clear roads can get congested fast.
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ON OUR RADAR
Reuters: Oil prices ticked down after Syria’s Druze reached a new ceasefire deal with the government in Sweida.
WSJ: Trump criticized his supporters for focusing on what he called the “Epstein hoax”, claiming they were falling for a Democratic narrative.
CNN: The US launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trade practices, citing concerns over digital trade, tariffs, and intellectual property.
AP: Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.34% ) CEO Jensen Huang downplayed his role in the US decision to lift a ban on chip sales to China.
The Verge: One writer spent 24 hours flirting with Ani — the “Companion” chatbot developed by Elon Musk’s xAI. Here’s what happened.
STREET TWEET
Solo founders + agents are here
— #Ben Lang (#@benln)
4:23 PM • Jul 16, 2025
Will the next unicorn be a one-person show?
It’s more likely now than ever before. Why? Another fun fact we stumbled on today: 1 of 4 startups at this year’s Y Combinator were 95% coded by AI.
TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on nCino $NCNO ( ▼ 0.26% ) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
