HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET
Quick reminder: our private credit webinar goes live Thursday at 12:30 CT, less than 48 hours away. We’re sitting down with UBS's Max Sabert to break down the $3 trillion private credit story everyone is suddenly very interested in: who's exposed, what breaks next, and how this rhymes (or doesn't) with 2008.
Street Sheet Research members: save your seat here.
Everyone else: you have 2 days left to sign up.
🟥 | US stocks retreated from record highs today as a report that OpenAI is behind on key metrics weighed on the tech sector.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Centene (CNC) surged after raising full-year adjusted EPS guidance above $3.40, topping consensus.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Erasca (ERAS) shed 50% of its stock price after disclosing a patient death in its ERAS-0015 cancer drug trial.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WHAT WILL MICHAEL SAYLOR SAY DURING HIS BITCOIN KEYNOTE SPEECH?
Michael Saylor takes the Bitcoin 2026 stage tonight to detail STRC, Strategy's (MSTR) perpetual preferred stock paying an 11.5% dividend. In a sector as volatile as crypto, there’s little use betting which way his remarks will send the market. So instead, traders are betting on which words he'll drop on stage.
'Satoshi' leads at 64¢, with 'Trump' close behind at 55¢. 'Winter' sits at just 18¢, fitting for a guy who has rarely had a bearish thought toward bitcoin.
Market Movers
ORACLE, COCA-COLA, SPOTIFY
📉 | Oracle (ORCL) slid on a WSJ report that partner OpenAI is missing user and revenue targets.
📈 | Coca-Cola (KO) topped Q1 earnings and revenue estimates.
📉 | Spotify (SPOT) issued weaker-than-expected Q2 operating income guidance.
📈 | Sanmina (SANM) issued upbeat Q3 EPS guidance and authorized a $600M buyback.
📉 | Rambus (RMBS) saw Q1 adjusted operating margin compress to 42% from 46% a year ago.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
PLUMBING NEW HEIGHTS
Stock Spotlight
Stock: Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)
Publication: Barron's
Current Price: $258
Price Target: $325
Implied Upside: 26%
Looking for ideas with higher upside potential? Street Sheet Research members get 3 stock picks from the Top 30% of analysts with 30%+ implied upside each week. Subscribe today.
Reading The Pipes
The largest US plumbing and HVAC distributor still looks too cheap for what it can do, per Barron’s Doug Busch.
With 1,700 locations, 35,000 employees, and 37,000 suppliers connecting to one million customers, Busch believes the wholesaler is built for any housing cycle.
Bolt-On Bonanza
The company holds the top market position in most of its territories yet controls only 10% of the overall market, leaving plenty of pipe to lay.
Management has closed more than two dozen bolt-on acquisitions in four years and is targeting $40 billion in sales and $4 billion in operating profit within five.
Net debt to EBITDA sits at a comfortable 1.1x, plenty of room to keep buying.
Cup Runneth Over
Half the business is tied to commercial customers, including AI data centers, which grew 18% in 2025. The residential side is flat, but any thaw in interest rates would light a fire under it.
If management hits its goal, EPS could clear $14 against an expected $11.12 in 2026, justifying a richer multiple.
Wells Fargo's (WFC) Sam Reid rates shares Overweight, and Baird's Dave Manthey is at Outperform with a $285 target. Even the chart looks ready to faucet higher.
Do you own any shares of Ferguson Enterprises (FERG)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
⚖️ | Elon Musk took the stand in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, and predicted that “AI will probably be as smart as any human as soon as next year.”
🟩 | Yes: 58%
🟥 | No: 42%
💸 | JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an incoming "bond crisis" if policymakers don't get ahead of swelling government debt.
🛢️ | The UAE will exit OPEC on May 1 after Iran's attacks on Hormuz shipping crippled its oil exports.
🏛️ | The Trump administration opened Section 301 hearings on 60 economies' forced-labor practices to backfill the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Rubrik (RBRK)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Nope, not interested — “Definitely there'll be winners in the cybersecurity space, but there's no clear indication Rubrik is winning at this point.”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “Years ago, I used to sell Rubrik amongst other backup devices. It wasn't impressive as a backup technology and a lot of customers replaced it. However, I'm hearing a different story brewing from the inside that makes it a little more appealing.”
