HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET.
Think size doesn’t matter? Tell that to your cocktail glass. A new study shows drinkers are happier, thirstier —and willing to shell out more—when their beverage arrives in a broad-rimmed goblet instead of a skinny flute. In tests, 60% of bar patrons splurged for pricier wine when it came in the “big-mouth” glass, and even plain apple cider scored higher on the happy-meter when it had room to breathe. Bottom line: if you run a bar, widen those rims—your margins might swell right along with them.
🟩 | US stocks rose while oil prices tumbled again on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire and a 13% two-day plunge in crude.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 12.1% ) jumped, leading the S&P 500 after the GENIUS Act boost, Ark Invest buy, and crypto rebound lifted investor sentiment.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Occidental $OXY ( ▼ 3.35% ) drops along with sliding oil prices.
— Brooks & Cas
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STOCK HEATMAPS
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz
Market Movers
UBER, Carnival, AMD
$UBER ( ▲ 7.52% ) UBER stock is up 7% today. Here's what we see in our data. (Nasdaq)
$CCL ( ▲ 6.91% ) Carnival Stock Surges After Earnings. Why the Shares Are Getting a Double Boost. (Barron’s)
$AMD ( ▲ 6.83% ) Analyst sends bold message on AMD stock (TheStreet)
$INTC ( ▲ 6.42% ) Intel Stock Blasts Up as Intel Halts Automotive Business (TipRanks)
$MU ( ▲ 4.78% ) Micron Technology Q3 Earnings Preview: AI-powered memory surge expected to drive growth (Seeking Alpha)
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
Reuters: Ford recalls 133,000 Lincoln Aviators (2020–2025) due to the risk of detached parts that could pose crash hazards, according to the NHTSA.
AP: NTSB blames Boeing and FAA oversight failures for Alaska Air 737 Max door plug blowout; missing bolts caused midair cabin breach.
CNBC: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sells $15M in stock—first move in $873M plan to offload up to 6M shares by year-end, per SEC filing.
Reuters: A U.S. judge ruled Anthropic’s AI book training was legal “fair use,” marking a key win for the AI industry in a major copyright case.
NBC News: McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme end U.S. doughnut deal, citing unsustainable costs; sales will stop nationwide on July 2.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
Fragile Truce
Markets Cheer Apparent De-Escalation
Markets ticked upwards this week on the back of growing investor confidence in an Iran-Israel ceasefire. The S&P closed up 1.1% today, brushing up close to February’s all-time high.
While both Iran and Israel initially appeared to violate Monday’s ceasefire, at time of writing on Tuesday, the fragile truce seemed to be holding. Wall Street responded positively to the de-escalation as hope grew for an end to the 12-day stretch of hostilities.
Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon, told Reuters that the impact of geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East on US equities tended to be “short-lived.” He said the ceasefire cemented that view.
A Symbolic Strike
Oil prices rose over 6% on Sunday after the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, per the Washington Post. However, prices are returning to pre-conflict levels as concerns about Iran’s reaction start to subside.
Notably, Iran’s well-telegraphed retaliation against American strikes on its nuclear facilities spared critical energy infrastructure. Markets are treating this as a sign that the conflict won’t disrupt energy markets.
Commentators also say it now seems unlikely that Iran will try to close the vital Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs analysts yesterday forecast that Brent crude oil prices could hit $110 a barrel if the important waterway was blocked. That’s 68% up on Tuesday’s close.
Measured Reaction
President Trump’s announcement that China could sidestep sanctions and purchase Iranian oil also helped to ease pressure on oil prices.
However, the FT says that analyst reaction had been cautious. There is still a lot of uncertainty, and it will take time for markets to fully absorb recent events. Right now, it seems that Iran’s measured reaction has poured oil on troubled waters. But there’s still a way to go.
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ON OUR RADAR
QZ: Nearly 2M student loan borrowers face wage garnishment this summer as the Dept. of Education resumes collections for first time since COVID.
Axios: Democrats join Republicans and Trump in urging Fed rate cuts, as Powell stays cautious amid economic uncertainty and trade policy fallout.
ABC News: Red Lobster revives Crabfest with new seafood boils after exiting bankruptcy, aiming to bounce back from last year’s costly shrimp deal.
AP: U.S. consumer confidence fell in June, with tariff fears driving economic anxiety and expectations dropping to near-recession levels.
CNBC: Fed Chair Powell signals rate pause amid tariff uncertainty, stressing inflation control despite growing criticism from President Trump.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▲ 1.64% ) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Bearish — “Americans are fed up with big health insurance making medical decisions.”
🐂 Bullish — “They will get back to basics.”
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