HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET
Markets are closed. So is Congress. A peaceful Good Friday, for those who observe.
But while we’re talking holidays, here's another one worth marking: “Liberation Day” turns one today.
A year ago, Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, and the S&P dropped more than 12% in its wake. Six days later, he paused them, the index surged 9.5% in a single session, and Wall Street coined the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade: buy the dip, collect the bounce, repeat.
After a year, the data is clear: TACO worked. It worked on tariffs. It worked on China. (Twice.) It even worked on Greenland.
But past performance is no guarantee of future results, and for those looking to replicate today, Iran may be a different animal. You can walk back a tariff announcement in a single tweet. Ending a war requires the other side to agree.
Retail investors who drove every prior TACO rally are reportedly less active right now, and even the strategists who coined the trade are hedging their language for the first time. Something to chew on over the weekend.
— Brooks & Cas
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
NOT RKT SCIENCE
Stock Spotlight
The Death Cross
Rocket's chart reads like a botched launch. But Barron's technical analyst Doug Busch thinks it’s still cleared for takeoff.
The stock sits well below its most recent 52-week high after falling in eight of the last 11 weeks. A bearish death cross registered at the start of the week, with the 50-day moving average crossing beneath the 200-day.
Diverging From Doom
Beneath the bearish signals, Busch sees a setup quietly improving.
A bullish MACD crossover and positive RSI divergence suggest selling pressure may be easing.
The stock has closed at weekly lows for four consecutive weeks, but Busch reads that pattern as exhaustion, not acceleration.
The Floor or the Door
The fundamental backdrop supports patience.
Q4 adjusted revenue more than doubled to $2.4 billion. Rocket's market share in home-purchase loans expanded from 3.8% to 5.5% last year, with a stated path to 8% by 2027.
Elsewhere, the AI-powered Rocket Logic platform is driving efficiency gains at scale, per the publication.
Busch says $13 is the line that matters. Hold it, and the bulls have a runway. Break it, and this thesis lands itself.
Do you own any shares of Rocket Companies (RKT)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
💼 | The US added 178,000 jobs in March, far more than the 59,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%.
⚔️ | President Trump proposed $1.5T in defense spending for fiscal 2027, the largest dollar amount in modern US history, paired with $73B in cuts to education, the EPA, and more.
💊 | Trump also signed an executive order imposing tariffs of up to 100% on some patented drugs.
✈️ | A US fighter jet went down over Iran, the first known jet loss inside the country since the war began.
⚙️ | Chinese chip firms posted record 2025 revenue led by AI demand and US export curbs, with SMIC sales rising 16% to $9.3B.
THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Brinker International (EAT)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Nope, not interested — “Growth dependent on Chili's restaurant assumes far better economic performance than is currently present or forecasted.”
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