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A Unicorn in the IBD Ward
Jefferies initiated Abivax $ABVX ( ▲ 6.28% ) at Buy with a $160 price target. Analyst Faisal Khurshid called the company's lead drug, obefazimod, a "unicorn" in inflammatory bowel disease: strong clinical efficacy delivered in a safe, easy oral pill.
Obefazimod is developed for moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Khurshid estimates the global IBD market could exceed $30 billion by 2030.
The analyst argues that Abivax looks "underappreciated" given how clearly obefazimod stands apart from its competitors.
The Market Is Missing the Crohn's Math
The second-quarter maintenance readout is "fairly de-risked," Khurshid said, and should clear a path to regulatory approval for obefazimod in ulcerative colitis.
But his larger argument is about Crohn's disease. That market is roughly the same size as the ulcerative colitis market, he noted. Khurshid called assessing Crohn's potential "the most important variable to fundamental and strategic value."
Positive data there would shift both the investment case and the acquisition calculus.
The Stock That Already Made Believers Rich
Shares were trading near $10 in late July, before positive trial results sent them higher. The stock has not looked back, rising more than 1,000% since.
Multiple acquisition reports have followed. Khurshid said market expansion, not deal speculation, is the right frame for valuation.
A stock up more than 1,000% is a hard pitch. Jefferies is making it anyway, and believes Abivax’s biggest chapter has yet to start.
