HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET
Oracle (ORCL) showed thousands of employees the door today, effective immediately, with little to no warning. Some reports say up to 30,000 will be impacted, blowing Block’s (XYZ) elimination of 2,000 roles out of the water. The culprit? You guessed it: AI.
However, recent precedents suggest it might not be that cut-and-dry. The growing Big Tech playbook seems to be cutting full-time workers, citing AI, then quietly refilling the roles with cheaper contractors. The only thing being automated here may be the excuse.
🟩 | US stocks rose sharply today, the best single-day performance for all three major indexes since May, on growing optimism that the US-Iran war could be nearing an end.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Constellation Energy (CEG) fell after revealing no new data center deals at its investor call.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WHEN WILL DHS BE FUNDED AGAIN?
The DHS shutdown just became the longest funding lapse in US history, and Congress is out of town. The House rejected the Senate's bipartisan deal, passed a two-month stopgap that has no path through the Senate, and then recessed for two weeks.
On the bright side, at least prediction markets are sure it’ll be over by June.
Well. Pretty sure.
Market Movers
MARVELL, ROCKET LAB, MCCORMICK
📈 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) gained after receiving regulatory approval to acquire Mynaric.
📉 | McCormick (MKC) fell after announcing a near-$45B deal to acquire Unilever's (UL) food business.
📈 | Snap (SNAP) surged after activist investor Irenic disclosed a 2.5% stake.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
NI TIME LIKE THE PRESENT
Stock Spotlight
Plugging In
A premium-priced utility with room to get pricier. That’s KeyBanc analyst Sophie Karp's call on natural gas distributor NiSource.
Where the stock once traded at a discount to its peer group, it now carries roughly a 1.5x premium. Karp does not view that premium as a caution flag, but a floor.
Regulated & Ready
The bull case starts with the regulatory backdrop. Constructive environments across NiSource's key jurisdictions, combined with relatively modest regulatory lag, keep the earnings trajectory stable and predictable.
That combination, per Karp, is rare enough in the utility sector to justify a top-tier valuation. KeyBanc believes those conditions will continue to support NiSource's position among the highest-rated regulated utilities over time.
NI Longer Overlooked
Four analysts have already revised earnings estimates higher for the coming period, a sign the thesis is not KeyBanc's alone. NiSource beat Q4 earnings estimates and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, payable in May.
The stock has quietly moved from discount to premium. Karp believes the buzz could get a lot louder.
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
⛽ | US gas prices crossed $4/gallon for the first time since 2022, up more than $1 since the Iran war began in late February.
Above 4.00: 81%
Above 4.10: 75%
Above 4.20: 66%
Above 4.30: 46%
Above 4.40: 30%
🤖 | OpenAI closed a record-breaking $122B funding round as it gears up for an anticipated IPO.
💰 | JPMorgan (JPM) launched its "American Dream Initiative," pledging $80B in small-business lending and three million new customers over the next decade.
📊 | The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, though 12-month inflation expectations surged to their highest level since August.
🍫 | Nestlé (NSRGY) turned a theft of more than 400,000 KitKat bars into a viral PR win, publicly joking about the missing chocolate.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Expedia Group (EXPE) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Bearish — “Who can afford to travel this year?”
