HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET
Wall Street's hottest analyst this week didn’t file from a corner office.
Citrini Research says it sent Analyst #3 (presumably a sobriquet) to the Strait of Hormuz, where he reportedly swam through contested waters with a cigar and Iranian drones overhead.
The report's main finding: Iran is running the Strait like a toll road. Our takeaway: long Cuban cigars, short Bloomberg terminals.
🟨 | US stocks finished near the flatline today as investors tentatively bet on the TACO Trade amid escalating rhetoric from President Trump, ahead of the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Universal Music Group (UMGNF) surged after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square offered to acquire the company in a $64.4B deal.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Apple (AAPL) fell after Nikkei Asia reported engineering setbacks in its first foldable iPhone ahead of a critical production window.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT
The market sold Apple on one headline and ignored the next. Nikkei Asia said the foldable iPhone was behind schedule. Bloomberg said it wasn't.
Prediction market traders, for what it’s worth, sided with Bloomberg, pricing an 84% chance Apple announces the phone before year-end.
Two conflicting reports, one question: which one are you buying?
Market Movers
UNITED HEALTH, ARM HOLDINGS, BROADCOM
📈 | UnitedHealth (UNH) jumped after CMS finalized a higher-than-expected payment increase for Medicare Advantage plans.
📉 | Arm Holdings (ARM) fell on a fresh downgrade.
📈 | Broadcom (AVGO) agreed to supply AI chips for Alphabet (GOOGL) and signed an expanded computing deal with Anthropic.
📉 | Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) fell as elevated oil prices weighed on travel stocks.
📈 | United Airlines (UAL) rose despite the aforementioned oil-driven pressure on the broader travel sector.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
MS-UNDERSTOOD
Stock Spotlight
Unafraid to Disrupt
The banking headlines have been brutal, but they may be misunderstood.
UBS analyst Erika Najarian upgraded Morgan Stanley to Buy, arguing the recent barrage around Iran, private credit, and AI is precisely what makes quality bank stocks worth adding right now.
Its track record backs up the confidence. E-Trade in 2020. Eaton Vance for fixed income. A crypto partnership with Zerohash in 2025. Najarian's read: this is a bank that disrupts itself rather than waiting to be disrupted.
The Short Stick
On deregulation, Morgan Stanley has drawn the short end. Peers have already benefited from changes to the Stress Capital Buffer framework and risk-based asset calculations.
Najarian believes those gains have yet to be priced into Morgan Stanley shares, creating what she sees as a meaningful gap between where the stock trades and where it should.
Best-in-Class
Najarian also expects Morgan Stanley to potentially outperform its medium-term targets, drawing a parallel to how JPMorgan (JPM) sets modest goals and consistently clears them.
Of the 25 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy and 15 have a Hold. Shares are in the red year-to-date, slightly outperforming peers like JPMorgan and Bank of America.
The consensus is iffy. UBS is all-in.
Do you own any shares of Morgan Stanley (MS)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🪖 | President Trump threatened Iran with civilizational destruction unless it struck a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 PM tonight.
🚗 | Used vehicle prices hit their highest point since summer 2023 as Cox Automotive's Manheim index rose 6.2% year-over-year.
⚙️ | Intel (INTC) announced a partnership with SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA) to design and manufacture chips at Elon Musk's planned Terafab facility in Austin, Texas.
Above 140: 90%
Above 160: 55%
Above 170: 35%
🏢 | Distressed US office sales rose 24.5% in the first two months of 2026, with some properties trading at more than 97% discounts.
💊 | Novo Nordisk (NVO) Wegovy pill drew over 600K prescriptions and attracted new GLP1 patients avoiding injections due to cost or needle fears.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Tesla (TSLA)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Yup, I’m holding — “Not an EV car company anymore. Building a variety of profit centers that will launch tremendous growth.”
🐻 Nope, not interested — “The depth of outrage among Tesla's target market is being underestimated by the market.”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “FOMO.”
