HAPPY SUNDAY TO THE STREET.

Nearly half of U.S. workers are eyeing the exits, which means perks have to pull weight. The secret to retention is no longer free LaCroix and ping pong tables. Enter sabbaticals, education benefits, internal mobility, childcare help, wellness stipends, flexible work, and yes, profit sharing. Employers using these levers are banking loyalty, not just good press. TL;DR: build up people, keep your talent.

— Brooks & Cas

MONDAY’S MELTDOWN, MORGAN’S OPPORTUNITY

Calling a Comeback

Morgan Stanley just upgraded monday.com $MNDY ( ▲ 1.86% ), saying now’s the time to buy the dip. The firm raised its rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, even after lowering its price target to $260 from $330. That new target still implies a potential upside of nearly 48% from Friday’s close.

Shares of the project management platform tumbled nearly 18% after reporting second-quarter results. Despite beating on both earnings and revenue, investors weren’t thrilled with its mixed Q3 guidance or weaker-than-expected user metrics.

Morgan Stanley’s Josh Baer sees this as a rare entry point, saying recent weakness reflects “skinnier beats” and investor focus on paid search. But he thinks the reaction has been overly harsh.

Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Upside

Baer believes the selloff has already priced in fears surrounding AI’s impact on search ads and the company’s heavy use of performance marketing. In his view, those concerns are “overblown.”

He also pointed to monday.com’s strategic shift, introducing more products, and leaning into a sales-led approach as a positive longer-term play, albeit not without risk.

Still, the analyst argued that the company is handling these changes from a position of strength. According to Baer, the current valuation underestimates monday.com’s potential to capitalize on a “large and compelling opportunity.”

Analysts Still on Board

Even with the stock down more than 44% in the past six months, most analysts remain optimistic. LSEG data shows that 22 of the 24 analysts covering MNDY rate it a Buy or Strong Buy.

Baer’s not alone in his bullish stance, but his upgrade comes at a time when many investors are wary of growth names with performance hiccups.

If monday.com can prove its strategy is working, Morgan Stanley thinks the road ahead could look very different from the past month’s slump.

Are you bullish or bearish on Monday.com (MNDY) over the next 12 months?

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HOT MUNI-TE

Strategists Say Act Fast

The tax-free bond market’s sweet spot may be closing quickly. Hilltop Securities’ Tom Kozlik says the “ship is leaving the port” as falling yields signal investors are already positioning for rate cuts.

July’s weak jobs report has only added to those expectations, with futures markets now pricing a 86.8% chance the Federal Reserve trims rates in September, per CME FedWatch.

The average municipal bond yield has already slipped to about 3.9% from 4% last week. For top-bracket investors, that’s roughly a 6.5% tax-equivalent yield — a rare find in today’s market. Kozlik warns that once the Fed narrative shifts firmly toward easing, muni yields could drop further, narrowing the window for attractive entry points.

Demand Is Heating Up

Cross-over buyers, who don’t typically invest in munis, are now active in the space. Their buying can compress the muni-to-Treasury ratio, which currently sits at about 75% for 10-year bonds. That’s unusually high for munis, which are federally tax-free and often exempt from state taxes.

Kozlik says heavy new issuance has kept ratios elevated for now, but he’s talking “days, not weeks” before relative value fades. Schwab’s Cooper Howard agrees the longer end of the curve offers the best value for investors who can handle some rate risk.

Where to Look Now

Kozlik favors high-grade general obligation bonds and strong revenue bonds from well-rated state or local issuers. Select higher-education bonds from large, stable systems can also offer value. Howard suggests focusing on what’s backing the bond rather than just sector labels, and building a ladder with an average duration of about six years to smooth reinvestment risk.

With yields slipping and rate cuts looming, muni buyers may need to move quickly. As Kozlik puts it, this isn’t the time to wait on the dock — the best bargains may already be sailing away.

Are you bullish or bearish on municipal bonds over the next 12 months?

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LATTE HALF FULL

Baird Pours a Fresh Cup

Baird just gave Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 2.14% ) a grande seal of approval. The firm rated the coffee stock Outperform and raised its price target to $115. That’s nearly a 27% boost from Monday’s close.

Analyst David Tarantino says the turnaround plan is starting to look less like an illegible scribble on the side of a coffee cup, and more like a thoughtful design.

The stock’s been cooling, down 2% in the past month after a sixth straight quarter of same-store sales declines. But CEO Brian Niccol says momentum is building, and Baird believes investor sentiment could heat up once earnings start to rebound.

Seeing Green Apron

The centerpiece of the strategy? The “Green Apron Service,” Starbucks’ latest push to make customer service more personal. (Think Sharpie doodles on cups, names spelled almost correctly, etc.)

The company behind the Avocado Blended and Unicorn Frappucino has also added an extra shot of innovation, rolling out new products like protein cold foam and a refreshed bakery case.

Baird also notes a clearer view of $500 million in labor investments and hints at cost-saving opportunities in supply chain, G&A, and store-level operations. The goal: return operating margins to their pre-2019 perch of 17% from an estimated 10.3% in fiscal 2025.

Secret Sauce Menu

Starbucks isn’t on every analyst’s menu. Of 39 analysts, fewer than half rate the stock a Buy. The rest are split between Hold and Underperform.

Still, Baird believes the secret sauce is on Starbucks’ secret menu, and its new recipe could finally get the espresso machine humming again.

Are you bullish or bearish on Starbucks (SBUX) over the next 12 months?

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LAST WEEK’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Hologic $HOLX ( ▼ 0.8% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

Are you bullish or bearish on Peloton $PTON ( ▼ 0.82% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐂 Bearish — 

    • “Yesterday’s news. Machines terrible!!! Foot crushers.”

    • “There will not be enough customer base for high end sports equipment.”

    • “I just don't feel the renewed interest is there ”

Are you bullish or bearish on Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▲ 0.67% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

  • 🐂 Bullish — “Diversification strategy.”

  • 🐻 Bearish — “It’s where it should be.”

Reply

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