HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET

Spirit Airlines hit the runway for good this weekend, and rivals are already circling the gate. JetBlue (JBLU), Breeze, Frontier (ULCC), and the legacy carriers swooped in with new routes out of Fort Lauderdale before the lights even dimmed. Spirit's bare-bones fares may be gone, but the scramble for its leftover gates promises to be anything but cheap.

  • 🟥 | US stocks fell as renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil sharply higher, souring risk appetite and dragging the Dow lower.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: eBay (EBAY) jumped after GameStop (GME) made an unsolicited $55.5B offer to buy it.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) dropped after slashing Q2 and full-year guidance on soaring fuel prices.

— Brooks & Cas

MARKET SNAPSHOT

HOW MANY LAUNCHES WILL SPACEX HAVE IN MAY?

SpaceX has launched Falcon 9s so reliably this year that you could set your watch to the rumble. But the Space Coast has gone suspiciously quiet, with no liftoff scheduled until May 12. Bettors give it 47¢ odds the company clears 13 launches this month, which would still leave Elon well short of his usual cadence.

Market Movers

GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, UPS

📈 | Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) soared after Long Lake agreed to acquire it for $6.3B.

📈 | Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) rose after receiving FDA clearance to use Auvelity to treat Alzheimer’s disease agitation.

📉 | UPS (UPS) sank after Amazon (AMZN) launched its own freight and parcel shipping business.

📈 | Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) gained after CEO Greg Abel reassured investors at the annual shareholders meeting.

📈 | GlobalFoundries (GFS) rose after Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded the stock to Overweight.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

WHEN THE MOAT RUNS DRY

Stock Spotlight

  • Stock: PLTR

  • Firm: HSBC

  • Current Price: $146

  • Price Target: $151

  • Implied Upside: 3.4%

Looking for ideas with higher upside potential? Street Sheet Research members get 3 stock picks from the Top 30% of analysts with 30%+ implied upside each week. Subscribe today.

Moat Maintenance

HSBC (HSBC) analyst Stephen Bersey thinks Palantir's (PLTR) competitive walls are crumbling faster than the AI orchestration market is growing. He downgraded the stock to Hold and slashed his price target.

Bersey's worry is that Palantir's bread and butter, embedding engineers directly with customers, is no longer a defensible playbook. OpenAI and other rivals are running the same play, and AI agents are making it easier for everyone.

Enter the Agents

Bersey pointed to the explosion of agentic frameworks and Model Context Protocol servers as the smoking gun. Those tools are quietly lowering the technical barriers Palantir spent years building behind.

He also flagged Anthropic's growing revenues as a direct threat, noting the AI company's gains are coming partly at Palantir's expense. The orchestration pie is bigger, but Palantir's slice may be shrinking.

Earnings on Deck

Last quarter's blowout numbers didn't move the stock, which Bersey reads as a warning sign. Investors may already be pricing in the new competitive reality.

Palantir reports earnings after the close, and the bar is uncomfortably high. The moat held for years, but in AI, six months is a generation.

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OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

💼 | Anthropic launched a $1.5B joint venture with Goldman Sachs (GS), Blackstone (BX), and Hellman & Friedman to embed Claude inside investor-owned portfolio companies.

🌭 | Costco (COST) is now letting members swap soda for bottled water in its $1.50 hot dog combo.

💊 | Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Wegovy pill has signed up tens of thousands of new patients since January, doubling daily volume at telehealth provider LifeMD (LFMD).

FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS

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