HAPPY WEDNESDAY TO THE STREET

Apollo Global Management (APO) CEO Marc Rowan is hoarding $40B in cash, moving up the credit quality of his fixed income, and putting the odds of an "out of the box" market shock at 30-35%.

He also took aim at rival insurers leaning on "egregious" Cayman structures and aggressive credit assumptions. Translation: Rowan thinks the music is still playing, but he's already eyeing the exits.

  • 🟩 | US stocks surged today on more AI earnings momentum and reports the US and Iran may be nearing a deal. The S&P 500 closed above 7,300 for the first time.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: AMD (AMD) popped after issuing Q2 revenue guidance well ahead of estimates.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) sank along with other oil names on the aforementioned US-Iran developments.

— Brooks & Cas

MARKET SNAPSHOT

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales

WHICH COMPANIES WILL IPO THIS YEAR?

The latest AI mega-deal was struck between two firms that aren’t even public… yet. Anthropic and SpaceX just inked a massive compute deal, despite Elon Musk’s outspoken criticism of the former. Prediction markets put Anthropic's chances of an IPO this year at 68% and SpaceX at 95%.

However, Bank of America (BAC) thinks investors should be careful what they wish for. Strategist Savita Subramanian warned that an issuance deluge could end the bull run by forcing passive funds to dump Magnificent Seven holdings. The red carpet may be hiding a trap door.

Market Movers

ARM, ARISTA, CORNING

📈 | Arm Holdings (ARM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) rallied on AI chip optimism ignited by strong earnings momentum. Arm reports tomorrow.

📉 | Arista Networks (ANET) fell after Q1 adjusted gross margin missed expectations.

📈 | Corning (GLW) jumped on a deal with Nvidia (NVDA) to build three new optical manufacturing facilities.

📉 | Klaviyo (KVYO) plunged more than 30% on weak Q2 operating income guidance and the departure of its CFO.

📈 | Flex (FLEX) surged nearly 35% hit a 52-week high on plans to spin off its cloud and power infrastructure unit.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

MCVALUE PROP

Stock Spotlight

  • Stock: McDonald's (MCD)

  • Firm: UBS (UBS)

  • Current Price: $284

  • Price Target: $365

  • Implied Upside: 28.5%

Looking for more upside? Street Sheet Research members get 3 stock picks from the Top 30% of analysts with 30%+ implied upside each week. Subscribe today.

Analysts Lovin' It

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger thinks investors are sleeping on the Golden Arches.

He reiterated his Buy rating on McDonald’s, arguing the risk/reward looks attractive, even with near-term headwinds from the Iran war and slowing US sales trends.

Wallet-Friendly Wins

Geiger's confidence comes from three concrete catalysts.

The April rollout of McValue 2.0 targets price-sensitive customers. A new beverage platform is ramping. And McDonald's just inked a menu collaboration with Netflix’s (NFLX) hit KPop Demon Hunters.

Each move is built to drive traffic and grab share. Geiger argues it's enough to strengthen US sales trends through the rest of the year, and the defensive characteristics of fast food don't hurt either.

Demon Hunters Defense

Shares are in the red over the past three months, underperforming the broader market on Iran war fears. Opinion on the stock is split. 21 of the 38 analysts covering McDonald's rate it a Buy or Strong Buy.

UBS thinks the bears have already had their meal. The Golden Arches just need to keep their value pitch on the menu.

Do you own any shares of McDonald's (MCD)?

(Drop us a note and tell us why.)

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OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

⛽ | A New York Fed report found lower-income households cut gas consumption 7% in March yet still spent 12% more, deepening the K-shaped economy.

📺 | Ted Turner, the cable TV titan who launched CNN (WBD) and built Turner Broadcasting before selling it to Time Warner in 1995, died at 87.

✈️ | US airlines spent 56.4% more on jet fuel in March than February after the US-Israel strikes on Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

🏰 | Disney (DIS) topped quarterly expectations as streaming and US theme park spending offset weaker international tourism.

🤖 | Former iRobot (IRBT) CEO Colin Angle unveiled Familiar, a four-legged AI pet robot.

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Do you own any shares of Five Below (FIVE)?

▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐻 Nope, not interested — “Retail sporting goods seems to be a weak sector with a lot of competition. It is not clear why 5 Below stands out sufficiently to warrant investment.”

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