Hey there! Happy Monday from The Street Sheet. Ready to start a new week of trading off strong? Here’s everything you might have missed last week on Wall Street, and everything to watch in the week ahead.

The major indices lost ground this week. The S&P 500 treaded water with a 0.10% loss, despite notching several record closes earlier in the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both retreated by 0.19%, with the latter also giving up an all-time high, which it hit on Thursday.

Driving the Nasdaq’s dip was a poorly received earnings report from chipmaking giant Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 2.78% ), which showed robust earnings and revenue growth but sales from data centers missing forecasts, albeit by a mere 0.5%. Nvidia shares slipped on the news, a selloff that only intensified on Friday.

However, despite the world’s largest company demonstrating weakness, the S&P 500 rallied on Thursday after a revised GDP report showed the U.S. economy grew at 3.3% in Q2, compared to the initial estimate of 3.0%. This pushed the S&P 500 and DJIA to record closes.

But each of the indices retreated on Friday, as core Personal Consumption Index data showed inflation rising by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and 2.9% annually. That’s the briskest annual pace since February, and firmly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Nonetheless, traders continued to price in a high probability that the Fed announces a 25-basis-point rate cut at its September 17 meeting. It’s possible that these expectations reflect political realities, as well as economic ones.

President Trump, who has been outspoken in his desire that the Fed cut rates, recently replaced resigning Fed Governor Adriana Kugler with his economic advisor Stephen Miran. Additionally, this week, Trump intensified his attack against the central bank’s independence by firing Lisa Cook. The Fed governor countersued, leaving the ball in the court’s, well, court.

Whatever the case, with political pressure mounting and labor market weakness showing, investors are betting the familiar combination of persistent inflation and resilient growth may not be enough to stay the Fed’s hand this time.

The biggest question mark over markets next week will be Friday’s release of the monthly jobs report for August. With Fed Chair Powell acknowledging in his remarks at Jackson Hole that a softening labor market was changing the Fed’s calculus towards a rate cut in September, traders will be watching to see whether weak jobs data solidifies the case for lower rates.

No economic data is scheduled for release on Labor Day, when the public markets will also be closed.

But Tuesday will bring the ISM Manufacturing data for August. Last month’s reading of 50.1 indicated a slight expansion in the sector. A higher reading will be evidence that last week’s higher-than-expected GDP report heralded renewed strength in manufacturing, while a contraction would suggest that last month’s reading was a false start, after the sector shrank for four consecutive months earlier this year. 

On Wednesday, job openings data will be released, and factory orders data will shed more light on the health of U.S. manufacturing. Thursday’s initial unemployment claims data will be a tea leaf to read into the labor market, as spiking initial unemployment claims will add to evidence that the labor market is softening. 

Also of note are scheduled remarks by four Fed officials. On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem gives prepared remarks, and traders will be watching to see whether this typically hawkish rotating member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is changing his tune. He will be followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday. New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speak on Thursday. 

While the week ahead will bring numerous tea leaves to read into the Fed’s September 17 decision, none are as important as the August jobs report. The U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, with June and May’s numbers revised sharply downward. A continued slowdown could all but assure a September rate cut.

On the other hand, if the jobs report shows the labor market rebounding, then the Fed will be assessing a rate cut amid a reasonably strong jobs market and stubbornly high inflation that is well above its 2% target. In that scenario, conventional wisdom around a September rate cut could change quickly.