
HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET.
Hey there! Happy Monday from The Street Sheet. Ready to start a new week of trading off strong? Here’s everything you might have missed last week on Wall Street, and everything to watch in the week ahead.
MARKET REVIEW
The narrative around inflation took some twists and turns this week, with markets buoyed by Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers released Tuesday, before being rattled by Producer Price Index (PPI) showing costs for producers rising by 0.9% in July. All three major indices finished the week higher, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high in intraday trading on Friday.
Tuesday’s CPI numbers showed prices rising by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. The monthly increase matched Wall Street’s expectations, while the year-over-year increase was slightly below expectations of a 2.8% increase.
A 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target 2% inflation rate. Nonetheless, markets rose on the news, with all three major indices gaining more than 1% for the day.
Curiously, this positive reaction came even despite “core” inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy components — rising 3.1% year-over-year, above analysts’ 3% estimate. That’s significant because the Fed prefers to base rate cut decisions on “core” inflation.
Thursday’s PPI report raised new questions, however. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices rose 3.3%, well above expectations of 2.5%. As Wall Street well knows, producers will only absorb so many new costs before passing them on to consumers in the form of higher prices. So if PPI numbers continue to rise, the already-stubborn inflation numbers could come back with a vengeance.
Still, traders weren’t terribly concerned by Thursday’s numbers, with the major indices largely treading water for the day. Markets are still pricing in a roughly 90% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in September. For the week, the DJIA, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 rose 1.75%, 0.81%, and 0.94%, respectively.
MARKET PREVIEW
Monday, August 18, will offer a glimpse into the housing market, with the home builder confidence index due in the morning. Last month’s report showed a 3.2% uptick, though confidence levels were still down 19.5% from a year ago. A continuing trend higher, combined with an increase in housing starts and building permits in numbers reported Tuesday, would suggest that American families are feeling more economically secure.
On Wednesday, minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released. The minutes relate to a meeting from more than a month ago. But they’ll still be closely watched for clues as to members’ views on the strength of the labor market, stubborn inflation levels, and overall economic stability ahead of the September meeting. There, they are widely expected to cut rates, per CME Group’s FedWatch.
Thursday will bring initial jobless claims for the prior week. Last week’s report showed initial jobless claims falling from 227,000 to 224,000, a welcome reprieve after the jobs report at the end of July, which showed marked weakness in the labor market. Traders will be keen to see more signs of resilience.
Also coming Thursday is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, a monthly report measuring the health of manufacturing in Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Though only surveying part of the United States, the report monitors a crucial hub of manufacturing with data going back to 1968, and will give us insight into the health of US manufacturing. In July, the survey showed activity expanding for the first time in four months, rising to 15.9, its highest level since February.
Friday could be a quiet day on Wall Street, with no major economic reports scheduled. Just seven companies will be reporting earnings, the largest of which is Gold Fields Limited $GFI ( ▼ 0.2% ), with a $27 billion market cap. But the earnings data drought will be brief, as Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.87% ), widely considered the most important stock on Wall Street today, reports earnings the following Wednesday.
CLOSING NUMBERS
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.75% to 44,946.12
S&P 500: +0.94% to 6,449.9
Nasdaq Composite: +0.81% to 21,622.98
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: +4bps to 4.32%
Dollar Index (DXY): -0.38% to 97.81
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: -5bps to 6.58%
WTI Oil: -1.22% to $63.10
Gold: -0.15% to $3,337.72
Bloomberg Commodity Index: -0.41% to 100.38
Bloomberg U.S. Gov’t/Credit Index: +0.13% to 2,651.49