HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET
And happy 4/20 to everyone who celebrates… except Tilray Brands (TLRY) shareholders.
The Canadian cannabis flagship has lost 96% of its value over the past five years. And its two largest peers haven't fared much better thanks to plain packaging, 1,000 licensed growers, and a black market that won't quit.
Even legalization couldn't get this stock high.
🟥 | US stocks finished near the flatline today, but came down off record highs, as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline looms.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Fermi (FRMI) tumbled after its CFO resigned days after the CEO departed.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WILL MARIJUANA BE RESCHEDULED?
Trump's weekend executive order on psychedelics fast-tracked research into psilocybin and MDMA, sending stocks like AtaiBeckley (ATAI) soaring today.
Meanwhile, cannabis reformers are still waiting on their own rescheduling review to clear the DEA. Bettors aren't optimistic the Schedule I-to-III shift lands this year.
Weed looked set to be first. Psychedelics just cut the line.
Market Movers
COMPASS PATHWAYS, BROADCOM, STANLEY B&D
📈 | Compass Pathways (CMPS) surged on Trump's executive order accelerating psychedelics research.
📉 | Broadcom (AVGO) fell on news of the potential Google-Marvell deal.
📈 | Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) said updated Section 232 tariffs won't materially impact its full-year forecast.
📉 | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) dropped after a satellite launched over the weekend landed in the wrong orbit.
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Spelling It Out
HSBC is spelling out its earnings season playbook, and Alphabet sits near the top.
Analyst Paul Rossington reiterated a Buy rating with a $385 price target ahead of the tech giant’s April 29 report. His thesis: AI is reshaping Google's core business, and the market has yet to price it in.
Gemini Risen
Rossington points to Gemini 3.0 and 3.1 Pro as the engine driving value across the Alphabet ecosystem, from query share to ad targeting to the YouTube experience.
Alphabet's 2026 capex guidance of $175B-$185B landed well above the $120B consensus, but management paired the spend with higher revenue and operating profit expectations, led by strong cloud momentum exiting 2025.
Cloud Cover
HSBC's broader earnings season list also features Arm Holdings (ARM), Oracle (ORCL), and Netflix (NFLX), reinforcing a bet that AI-linked names keep leading. When it comes to Alphabet, HSBC is letter-perfect on conviction.
Do you own any shares of Alphabet (GOOGL)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🏛️ | Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh said the central bank must "stay in its lane" and avoid fiscal and social policy to preserve its independence.
🟩 | Yes: 8.5%
🟥 | No: 91.5%
🛢️ | President Trump threatened renewed bombing of Iran if no deal is reached before tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline, as peace talks are set to resume.
🥪 | Jersey Mike's confidentially filed for an IPO, more than a year after Blackstone (BX) bought a majority stake at a roughly $8B valuation.
⚖️ | FBI Director Kash Patel sued The Atlantic for $250M over an article alleging his drinking had become a threat to public safety.
FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Affirm Holdings (AFRM)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I’m holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I’m interested
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Yup, I’m holding — “ Talk about Private Credit Risk!”
👀 No, but I’m interested — “Affirm is the modern day version of a loan shark although with less visible mob involvement.”
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