HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET.

The Federal Reserve is used to printing money. Now it’s wondering where it went.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has requested an internal investigation into a $300M building project that’s drawn scrutiny for ballooning costs and a surprise switch from renovation to full-blown rebuild.

With interest rates steady, it seems the Fed Chair is shifting focus to a different kind of tightening.

  • 🟩 | US stocks ticked up today as investors expressed optimism for further trade developments ahead of the new August 1 deadline.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Autodesk $ADSK ( ▼ 1.9% ) shares went on autopilot following a Bloomberg report that the software firm wants to buy competitor PTC $PTC ( ▲ 0.6% ).

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Waters $WAT ( ▼ 4.81% ) went underwater on its own M&A news, after the lab equipment provider announced it will merge with BD’s $BDX ( ▲ 0.69% ) Biosciences & Diagnostic Solutions division.

Finally, read to the end for the latest company to order employees back to the office — and the silver lining.

— Brooks & Cas

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STOCK HEATMAPS

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

Market Movers

APPLOVIN, RIVIAN, SHOPIFY

$APP ( ▼ 0.83% ) Citi reiterates Buy rating on AppLovin stock ahead of Q2 earnings (Investing.com)

$RIVN ( ▼ 0.94% ) Softer sales and the loss of tax credits will hurt this EV maker, says Guggenheim (CNBC)

$SHOP ( ▼ 1.45% ) Shopify attracts a new bull rating as Needham points to 'durable' growth opportunity (SeekingAlpha)

$LION ( ▼ 2.05% ) / $WBD ( ▲ 0.17% ) ‘Dune' Studio Legendary May Acquire 'John Wick' Studio Lionsgate (Gizmodo)

$NBIS ( ▲ 3.04% ) Goldman Sachs Sees 53% Upside In Nebius Group, Calls AI Infrastructure 'Undervalued' (Benzinga)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNBC: President Trump threatened 100% secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian exports unless a Ukraine peace deal is reached by September.

Bloomberg: JPMorgan $JPM ( ▼ 0.75% ) will begin charging fintechs for access to customer bank data later this year.

AP: US manufacturing remains sluggish despite Biden’s subsidies and Trump’s tariffs, with employment declining for a third consecutive year.

CoinDesk: Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $120,000 as investors await US inflation data.

WSJ: The US dollar had its worst first half of the year in more than five decades, falling 13% against the euro.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

NETFLIX HAS A SECRET WEAPON

Productivity Drives Growth

It’s been a bumpy year for the so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks. Even amid the recent broad market rally, tech giants like Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.24% ) and Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.93% ) are sharply in the red YTD. But every rule has an exception.

Needham recently raised its Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.13% ) price target to $1,500. That may sound high, but the new target implies less than 20% upside from current prices. After all, unlike some of its peers, the streamer’s stock has soared more than 40% in 2025 — and nearly 100% over the past 12 months.

Analyst Laura Martin emphasized that employee quality and culture are strongly tied to its financial performance, noting that trends in returns per employee suggest its workforce excels in creating value. She believes Netflix’s consistently high productivity is an underappreciated signal of future stock gains.

More Efficient Than Its Peers

Netflix’s revenue per full-time employee in FY 2024 hit $2.78 billion, beating out rivals like Apple, Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.24% ), and Meta $META ( ▼ 1.46% ). According to Martin, Netflix is “materially more productive” than its tech peers and nearly twice as efficient as the average large-cap company in her coverage.

On top of that, its free cash flow per full-time employee improved by over $500,000 between 2021 and 2024. Needham argues hese figures demonstrate that Netflix is not only competing through content, but also through operational excellence.

The streaming company’s labor costs now exceed its $17 billion annual content budget, underscoring the importance of workforce efficiency.

The Bulls Are Out

The stock’s recent gains far outpace the broader market. And a strong majority of analysts remain bullish on its future prospects as well. 34 of 49 rate the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy, according to LSEG data.

Martin thinks that the stock still has plenty of room to run as it continues to benefit from higher subscription prices and increased ad revenue.

As productivity metrics continue to strengthen, the analyst is confident that Netflix’s focus on high-performing talent — both in front of the screen and behind the scenes — will continue to propel it forward.

Are you bullish or bearish on Netflix (NFLX) over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

WSJ: Trump reached a deal to send weapons to Ukraine and is considering additional measures to increase economic pressure on Russia.

AP: The EU will delay retaliatory tariffs on US goods until August 1 in the hopes of reaching a trade deal with the Trump administration.

CNBC: Nearly one-third of the 100 largest US housing markets are now seeing annual price declines. Inventory jumped 29% year-over-year in June.

CNN: Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.93% ) will hold a shareholder vote on whether to invest in Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI.

BI: OpenAI, valued at $300B with 500M weekly users, faces mounting pressure from Big Tech rivals and internal burnout.

STREET TWEET

I personally would not complain.

I’m sure their break room coffee is second to none.

FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on SharkNinja $SN ( ▼ 0.67% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

Reply

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