HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET
SpaceX's record IPO turned early engineers, welders, even cafeteria workers into millionaires. Former Blue Origin staff got stock options that paid out only on an IPO or sale, then expired after 10 years.
Founder Jeff Bezos called them "long-term lottery tickets." A decade on, the tickets expired unscratched. In space, no one can hear you vest.
🟥 | US stocks slipped today, meaning the Nasdaq Composite closed in the red every day this week, on a weakening AI trade and reports OpenAI may delay its planned IPO.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Moderna (MRNA) jumped after laying out an mRNA oncology and rare-disease strategy beyond vaccines at its Science Day.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: ON Semiconductor (ON) slid after unveiling a nearly $7B all-stock deal to buy Synaptics, its largest acquisition ever.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
NEXT FED RATE HIKE?
With inflation at 4.1% and the Strait of Hormuz still a mess, even President Trump is giving new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh room to hold steady.
Meanwhile, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari flipped from penciling in a cut to a hike. Markets now see a nearly 80% chance of a December increase.
So much for a soft landing…
Market Movers
CROCS, AMD, ROBINHOOD
📈 | Crocs (CROX) won a Piper Sandler upgrade to Overweight on a valuation still cheap at 8x earnings.
📉 | Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell on a report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027.
📈 | Robinhood (HOOD) drew a fresh Buy initiation from BTIG.
📉 | Western Digital (WDC) dropped as the memory-stock selloff deepened.
📈 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) rose after NASA tapped it to launch two research missions.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
JUST DON'T DO IT
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Off The Pace
KeyBanc thinks the shoemaking stock with the “Just Do It” slogan doth protest too much.
Analyst Ashley Owens downgraded Nike, citing a turnaround that is moving, just not fast enough.
She declined to attach a price target.
China Syndrome
Owens says Nike's "Win Now" plan has run for over a year, yet efforts to rightsize sportswear and ease pressure in Greater China have lagged.
A reversal in European, Middle Eastern, and African trends adds fresh worry. CEO Elliott Hill's two-year-old overhaul promised more innovation and a return to classic retail.
The stock’s showing progress, Owens acknowledges, but not a clear path to gains.
Street Shrugs
Wall Street largely agrees. Of the 41 analysts covering Nike, 23 rate it Hold, and Evercore ISI (EVR) also cut its rating earlier this week.
Shares sit deep in the red this year as tariffs squeeze margins and China keeps slipping. The swoosh still sells shoes. Convincing it to sell the stock is the harder run.
Do you own any shares of Nike (NKE)?
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🌍 Trump threatened a 100% tariff on goods from any country that imposes a digital services tax on US tech companies.
⚖️ The CFTC has an ongoing investigation into prediction market Polymarket following its allegedly misleading marketing campaign.
🪙 Billionaire Jeremy Grantham said bitcoin will "dwindle away” over the coming decades.
🤖 OpenAI restricted its new LLM, GPT-5.6 Sol, to a small group of Trump-administration-approved customers during a cybersecurity review.
🧱 An armed police raid in American Fork, Utah, over a disputed $200K Star Wars Lego collection sparked local protests.
THURSDAY'S POLL RESULTS
Do you own any shares of Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Yup, I'm holding
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Nope, not interested
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 👀 No, but I'm interested
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Yup, I'm holding — “Large institutions are adding, so I'm in.”
🐻 Nope, not interested — “Tried the product for 2 years. Then, met my current, present, and only wife, been drinking the king of Colas, Coca-Cola for nigh on 50 years now!”
