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A Windfall Finds Its Way To Costco
Costco $COST ( ▲ 1.2% ) could be the biggest retail winner this tax season, according to JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 3.95% ).
As consumers begin receiving larger tax refunds tied to recent tax law changes, the bank says Costco is best positioned to capture that incremental spending.
JPMorgan analysts say the benefit stems from both Costco’s geographic footprint and its member base, which skews more mid- to high-income than other warehouse clubs.
Why Costco Stands Apart
JPMorgan compared Costco with competitors, including BJ’s Wholesale $BJ ( ▲ 1.13% ) and Walmart’s $WMT ( ▲ 3.34% ) Sam’s Club.
Based on Numerator data, the firm said BJ’s and Sam’s have greater exposure to lower-end consumers, while Costco is better aligned with households most likely to benefit from refund-related stimulus.
That matters this spring. Costco’s assortment of big-ticket general merchandise gives it an advantage when shoppers have extra cash to deploy, JPMorgan said.
A Broader Retail Lift
Beyond Costco, JPMorgan estimates last year’s tax changes could drive more than a 1% increase in core retail sales in 2026, with the bulk of the impact showing up during refund season.
After a pause last year, Costco shares have regained momentum to start 2026. JPMorgan believes the combination of tax-driven demand and Costco’s customer mix makes the retailer a standout beneficiary as refunds hit bank accounts.
