HAPPY SUNDAY TO THE STREET

Rivian (RIVN) started delivering its $60,000 R2 this week, the EV firm’s answer to Tesla’s (TSLA) self-driving stranglehold.

Proponents say it’s too much fun to let drive itself. Critics say that’s a good thing.

Right now the hands-free system will flag an upcoming stop sign and then sail through it at whatever cruising speed you've set if you don't grab the wheel.

Rivian promises an over-the-air fix in the coming months, point-to-point autonomy by year end, and robotaxis in 2028.

On the other hand, it also comes with an optional spare tire, increasingly a rarity, and for some, a major selling point. So, all in all… net positive?

— Brooks & Cas

WHY MEGA IPOS FLAME OUT ON LAUNCH

What: Day one is the easy part. SpaceX (SPCX) debuted Friday at an estimated $1.8T, nearly 100x trailing revenue. Barron's pulled the receipts on how mega-IPOs behave once the confetti settles.

Why: Jefferies ran the numbers: since 2000, IPOs valued above $10 billion averaged 26.5% returns in their first week of trading… but just 3.5% by the end of year one. Cerebras (CBRS) is the fresh exhibit, up nearly 70% on its May 14 debut, and now more than 30% below its opening price.

What Else: And SpaceX isn't traveling alone. Anthropic and OpenAI sit in the IPO pipeline, while the NYSE OPEN Venture Capital Unicorn Index, tracking 50 top startups including SpaceX and OpenAI, is up nearly 130% over 12 months. Much of the money was made in the private rounds.

Watch: SpaceX's first month, not its first day. LNW's Ron Albahary flags an "impending chokepoint" if markets can't absorb the supply, and BCA Research warns the wave could dilute existing AI winners.

A TALE OF TWO TECH GIANTS

What: Tim Cook's final keynote, which handed Apple's (AAPL) AI models to longtime partner Alphabet (GOOGL) and shipped free privacy-first basics, reruns the 2011 iCloud playbook. Shares fell in the wake of the event, but the lack of obvious innovation could pay off in the long run.

Why: Apple can afford the slow road. iPhone sales rose 23% in the first half of fiscal 2026 with AI driving nothing yet, and Melius Research's Ben Reitzes notes only about half the installed base can run Apple Intelligence. That's 500M+ upgrades waiting.

What Else: Meta (META) runs the same race without the cushion. Ads were 97.6% of revenue last year, AI capex outpaces bigger rivals relative to size, and the company is borrowing to cover it. Its proposed fix: $4-a-month Instagram perks and a $7.99 chatbot in a crowded field. Truist models $20B a year by 2030, for a company that didn't clear $5B in non-ad revenue last year.

Watch: Meta's Q2 print, where FactSet consensus sits near $60B, up 27% year-over-year. Great ads buy time, but not a second business.

FITBIT’S LONG SHADOW

What: Wall Street wants in on your REM cycle. Oura and Whoop, the ring and the screenless band quantifying America's recovery scores, are both eyeing public debuts after private raises at roughly $10-$11B, around 10x revenue.

Why: The WSJ sees a rerun risk. Fitbit went public a decade ago, touched nearly $10B in market cap, stalled when smartwatches ate its category, and sold to Google for $2.1B, under two times revenue. Consumer hardware is fickle and acquisition costs are brutal, and Oura is already running its largest marketing push ever.

What Else: There's also a ceiling question. Oura has sold more than 5.5M rings, trailing only Apple and Alphabet in US unit volume, per IDC. But the same firm sees US smart-ring shipments plateauing by 2028, and cheaper devices can track the same biometrics. The credible bull case, clinical-grade medicalization, moves at regulator speed.

Watch: Keep Garmin (GRMN) onscreen: profitable, debt-free, and trading at five to six times revenue, half what Oura and Whoop want. Premium hardware rarely keeps a software multiple.

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