HAPPY THURSDAY TO THE STREET
ChatGPT-polished applications have become so indistinguishable that some companies are dropping résumé requirements entirely. Firms like Expensify and Automattic have pivoted to paid work trials, GitHub portfolios, and live skills tests.
70% percent of employers now say they're using skills-based hiring over credentials. The CV seems set to officially join the fax machine and the BlackBerry in the museum of once-essential things.
🟥 | US stocks continued to slide today, with the DJIA down nearly 2%, as oil prices boomed amid turmoil in the Middle East.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Trade Desk (TTD) surged after The Information reported OpenAI held early talks with the ad-tech firm to sell ads.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Ciena (CIEN) fell after full-year revenue guidance disappointed Wall Street despite a top- and bottom-line beat.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT
While oil spikes and airline stocks crater on Iran fears, Ethereum and its fellow majors are having a standout week.
The tokens are buoyed by Trump's support for the Clarity Act and his backing of firms like Coinbase that want to pay customers a yield on stablecoin holdings. That's a direct shot at banks currently paying next to nothing on deposits.
But how high can ETH go before Washington changes its mind?
Market Movers
AMERICAN AIRLINES, BROADCOM, VICTORIA’S SECRET
📉 | American Airlines (AAL) and other major carriers slumped as fuel prices spiked due to the US-Iran conflict.
📈 | Broadcom (AVGO) beat on fiscal Q1 earnings and revenue, with sales growing 29% year-over-year.
📉 | Victoria's Secret (VSCO) slumped on lackluster free cash flow guidance.
📈 | Burlington Stores (BURL) flagged potential upside to its full-year guidance.
📉 | Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) missed Q4 earnings estimates and announced plans to close 36 stores.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
STRAIT TO THE POINT
Stock Spotlight
Great Future in Plastics
The Rating: BMO analyst Bhavesh Lodaya upgraded plastics producer Westlake to Outperform, citing the Middle East conflict's disruption of global polyethylene supply as a direct catalyst for new pricing power.
The Thesis: Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure has taken 12-13% of world polyethylene supply offline, tightening global utilization from roughly 80% to the low-90s%, with Westlake's US manufacturing base positioning it better than any peer to capitalize.
The Follow-On: Lodaya projects approximately $280 million in free cash flow for 2026, and sees additional upside from Westlake's operating leverage to a US housing recovery that the market may be underpricing.
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🛢️ | Iran struck a tanker in Iraqi territorial waters, sending WTI crude (USO) above $80 per barrel on a weekly surge of nearly 20%.
⚖️ | 24 other states filed suit to block Trump's new tariffs, arguing the president is misusing a 1974 trade law.
🤖 | OpenAI CEO Sam Altman defended his DOD deal at a Morgan Stanley (MS) conference, but conceded it looked opportunistic.
💰 | Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) resumed share buybacks for the first time since 2024, while new CEO Greg Abel disclosed a $15 million personal stock purchase.
🔴 | President Trump fired DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and nominated Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) to replace her. Hope you placed your bets last time we shared this poll.
Kristi Noem: 99%
Howard Lutnick: 1%
WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Toll Brothers (TOL) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐻 Bearish — “The amount of tariff-susceptible imported material will likely limit margins and growth.”
