A recession warning linked to Walmart (WMT) just hit its loudest reading since the 2008 financial crisis. The Walmart Recession Signal compares Walmart's stock to a basket of luxury names. The logic: when budget wins, the economy loses.

Meanwhile, the Kalshi odds for a recession this year are ticking… down? Walmart is the people’s retailer, but evidently, not the people’s recession indicator.

— Brooks & Cas

Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX: still two companies, or one by 2027? Wedbush's Dan Ives is betting on the latter, pointing to a joint chip factory in Austin, a pending SpaceX IPO targeting a $1.75T valuation, and operational ties that are tightening fast. Markets are giving it about a 1-in-5 shot by this time next year.

📈 | Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) surged after Bill Ackman called both "stupidly cheap”.

📉 | Boston Scientific (BSX) dropped after Raymond James (RJF) downgraded the stock and cut estimates below Wall Street consensus.

📈 | Palo Alto Networks (PANW) jumped after its CEO disclosed a $10M open-market share purchase.

📉 | Avis (CAR) slipped as investors took profits following the stock's sharp run-up last week on airport chaos expectations.

📈 | United Therapeutics (UTHR) hit a 52-week high after Phase 3 trial results for its main product, Tyvaso, came in ahead of expectations.

Most on Wall Street see AI as a threat to online travel. Jefferies sees a gift.

The firm upgraded Expedia Group to Buy, arguing that AI-powered search will consolidate traffic around the largest, most scaled platforms rather than scatter it.

Analyst John Colantuoni makes the case that AI-driven results will be narrower and more personalized, cutting out unpaid listings and handing a disproportionate share of traffic to players with the deepest performance marketing budgets.

His view: The hotel industry is too fragmented to compete. Expedia is not.

The firm also credits two years of product investment and a management overhaul for giving the company more durable growth footing.

Jefferies is going against the grain. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, only 15 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy.

Shares have trailed the broader market meaningfully this year. Colantuoni's thesis: Wall Street is still behind on AI's potential to help online travel, not hurt it.

Sometimes the best itinerary is the one no one else booked.

🏦 | Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will look through oil-driven inflation and sees no need for rate hikes.

🛢️ | Brent crude is on track for its biggest monthly surge on record, up roughly 55% in March, while WTI settled above $100 for the first time since 2022.

✈️ | Airport security lines began easing as TSA officers received overdue backpay, though the 44-day DHS partial shutdown continues.

🎬 | US film and TV employment has fallen 30% from its late-2022 peak as studios cut budgets and shift shoots overseas.

💰 | Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management filed to list on the NYSE under the ticker "PS," preparing to give public investors direct access to the firm's concentrated large-cap portfolio.

Are you bullish or bearish on Primo Brands (PRMB) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish