HAPPY WEDNESDAY TO THE STREET
The pitch was simple: AI handles the boring stuff so you can focus on the good stuff. The reality, per new research: workers are just doing more of everything. One Carnegie Mellon professor says the idea that AI can speed up deep cognitive work “is a bit fallacious.” Turns out, blank page paralysis was a feature, not a bug.
🟨 | US stocks barely budged today as the US-Iran conflict kept traders cautious.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Oracle (ORCL) jumped after beating fiscal Q3 estimates and raising its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook by $1 billion.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Campbell's Co (CPB) slid to a 23-year low after fiscal Q2 earnings and revenue both missed analyst estimates.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
PREDICTION MARKET SNAPSHOT
Congress is voting on a stock-trading ban that, on closer inspection… doesn't actually ban stock trading?
Trump's Stop Insider Trading Act lets lawmakers keep current holdings, sell with seven days' notice, and even buy stocks on their parents' behalf.
Good-government groups say it's a reform in name only. Prediction markets are pricing it accordingly.
Market Movers
PAPA JOHN’S, AEROVIRONMENT, NEBIUS
📈 | Papa John's (PZZA) surged after investment firm Irth Capital Management made a $1.5B takeover offer at $47 per share.
📉 | AeroVironment (AVAV) fell after a large fiscal Q3 revenue miss against analyst estimates.
📈 | Nebius Group (NBIS) climbed after Nvidia announced a $2B investment to support its AI infrastructure buildout.
📉 | Cadre Holdings (CDRE) plunged after Q4 earnings and revenue both came in well below analyst forecasts.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
JUST DUE IT
Stock Spotlight
Lacing Up the Recovery
The Rating: Analyst Adrienne Yih upgraded Nike to Overweight, arguing that recent operational progress and management discipline have shifted the stock's risk/reward profile in investors' favor.
The Thesis: Tangible improvements in inventory management, double-digit growth in running, and stabilizing margins give Nike a credible path to recovery, with North America leading the way.
The Follow-On: Tariffs, China demand, and geopolitical tension remain as risks, but Yih says they are largely known. She believes investor skepticism has overshot the evidence, creating an attractive entry point for longer-horizon buyers.
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
🏛️ | The US budget deficit reached $1T through February, but ran 12% below the prior year's pace, driven in large part by a 294% surge in customs duty collections.
At least $400B: 73%
At least $500B: 50%
At least $750B: 26%
At least $1T: 10%
🚢 | Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck three cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz today.
🛡️ | Chubb (CB) will serve as lead underwriter for a US government-backed $20 billion insurance program designed to restart oil tanker traffic through the Strait.
🚕 | Amazon's (AMZN) Zoox unit agreed to a multiyear partnership with Uber (UBER) to offer driverless robotaxi rides via the app.
🤖 | Serve Robotics (SERV) launched autonomous delivery of White Castle orders via Uber Eats.
TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Rivian Automotive (RIVN) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Bullish — “Finally, a decently priced Tesla competitor with some good technical capabilities, scale, and quality.”
🐻 Bearish — “The electric vehicle business is challenging for the USA because China has a lead and stronger products at a much better price, limiting US export possibilities.”
STREET SHEET RESEARCH MEMBERS ONLY
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