🚜 From Caterpillar To Butterfly

Plus, meet the new Max, same as the old Max...

HAPPY WEDNESDAY TO THE STREET.

“Magnificent 7”? More like “The Three Musketeers”.

As of today, just 3 of the 7 tech giants are in the green on the year, with Nvidia joining Meta and Microsoft. Meanwhile, the likes of Apple and Tesla are still down double-digit percentages YTD.

Over the past few years, investors have grown accustomed to a top-heavy Wall Street, with outsized gains from the Mag 7 buoying the broader market. But a top-heavy Mag 7? How are we supposed to play that?

— Brooks & Cas

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STOCK HEATMAPS

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

Market Movers

ETORO, AMERICAN EAGLE, OKLO

$ETOR ( ▲ 30.14% ) Newly issued eToro shares jump in Nasdaq debut. It’s a bullish sign for IPOs. (MarketWatch)

$AEO ( ▼ 6.09% ) American Eagle shares plunge after it withdraws guidance, writes off $75 million in inventory (CNBC)

$OKLO ( ▲ 15.64% ) Oklo Stock Soars After First-Quarter Earnings As AI Confidence Continues (IBD)

$UBER ( ▼ 1.6% ) / $AUR ( ▼ 6.9% ) Uber prices $1B exchangeable notes offering, Aurora Innovation falls (SeekingAlpha)

$NVDA ( ▲ 3.94% ) / $AMD ( ▲ 4.68% ) US tech firms Nvidia, AMD secure AI deals as Trump tours Gulf states (Reuters)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

Bloomberg: Saudi Aramco signed agreements with major US companies worth up to $90B, as President Trump’s Gulf tour leads to booming dealmaking.

CNBC: Case in point: Boeing $BA ( ▲ 0.5% ) and GE Aerospace $GE ( ▲ 0.44% ) struck a $96B deal to sell up to 210 aircraft to Qatar Airways.

Reuters: The deals rolled in stateside too. Kraft Heinz $KHC ( ▼ 1.43% ) will invest $3B to upgrade its US factories, the largest such investment in a decade.

CNN: If Siri has activated accidentally on your device, you may be eligible for a payout from Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.7% ) as part of a $95M settlement.

Fortune: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s net worth jumped $12B to approximately $114B after Trump’s announcement of a major Saudi AI chip deal.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

CAN CATERPILLAR BECOME A BUTTERFLY?

Baird Turns Bullish

Baird has upgraded Caterpillar’s $CAT ( ▼ 0.76% ) stock from Neutral to Outperform, and lifted its price target to $395, nearly 13% upside from today’s close.

This shift comes after a 90-day reprieve on US tariffs targeting Chinese imports. As a global industrial heavyweight, Caterpillar is sensitive to shifts in trade policy, and could potentially benefit from the pause.

Baird analyst Mircea Dobre believes it is positioned for a strong recovery, citing its resilient EBIT margin compared to its peers, which should help its stock performance.

Trade Relief Sparks Optimism

Easing trade tensions are expected to lift Caterpillar’s earnings potential, and analysts believe 2025 is likely to be a trough for EPS.

Dobre noted that the removal of tariff-related uncertainty could drive investor confidence and capital deployment. Caterpillar projected a $250-$350 million cost burden as a result of tariffs, so each deal that the US strikes has the potential to significantly boost its financial outlook.

Beyond trade, Caterpillar could benefit from reduced inventory pressures, adding another layer of potential stock upside.

Mixed Emotions

According to LSEG data, 12 of 28 analysts covering the stock have given it a Buy or Strong Buy rating, with 15 holding a neutral stance. Despite the split sentiment, Baird views the company as an undervalued stock poised to regain ground.

The stock is down 3.6% YTD, but has clawed back much of its losses over the past month, rising more than 17% over the period. Baird believes these latest gains may simply be the cocoon phase — and that investors still have time before Caterpillar evolves into a full-blown butterfly.

Are you bullish or bearish on Caterpillar (CAT) over the next 12 months?

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*Reserving a Nasdaq ticker does not guarantee a future listing on Nasdaq or indicate that BOXABL meets any of Nasdaq's listing criteria to do so.

ON OUR RADAR

WSJ: In an exclusive, Warren Buffett revealed why he is stepping down as Berkshire Hathaway’s $BRK.B ( ▼ 1.7% ) CEO in 2026.

AP: Chinese businesses are responding cautiously to the temporary US-China tariff pause, despite Trump’s claims of victory.

Reuters: Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.85% ) is likely to avoid a major fine from EU antitrust regulators as it offers to address Office and Teams integration concerns.

CNN: Trump and his sons are rapidly expanding their crypto ventures, raising concerns over potential corruption and conflicts of interest.

CNBC: Warner Bros Discovery $WBD ( ▼ 0.82% ) is re-rebranding Max as HBO Max this summer. Call it a “requel”?

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Argentinian equities over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐻 Bearish — “Remember, they have defaulted 9 times.”

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