Happy Monday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

• 🟥 | US stocks fell today but rebounded from sharp intraday losses after President Donald Trump levied a 25% tariff on Mexico over the weekend — then promptly paused it this morning.

• 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Shares of Triumph (TGI) soared nearly 34% on news it will go private in a deal valuing the aerospace company at $3 billion.

• 📉 | One Notable Decliner: The tariff sell-off stuck for some stocks, most notably Tesla (TSLA), which shed more than 5% due to its reliance on parts from Mexico and Canada.

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MARKET MOVERS

General Motors, Tyson Foods, UPS

GM (-3.2%) General Motors Cannot Pass All Tariffs Costs Onto Customers (SeekingAlpha)

TSN (+2.2%) Tyson lifts 2025 sales forecast, prepares for tariff impacts (Reuters)

UPS (-2.6%) / FWRD (-4.7%) / FDX (-6.6%) Why UPS, Forward Air, and FedEx Stocks All Tumbled Today (The Motley Fool)

IDXX (+11.1%) Idexx Soars 10.5% After Crushing Q4 Estimates — Big Buybacks and New Cancer Test Drive 2025 Outlook (YF)

OMI (-35.2%) Owens & Minor Hits Four-Year Low After Goodwill Charge, New Debt (MarketWatch)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

Reuters: Trump agreed to delay new tariffs on Mexico for one month after the nation pledged to deploy 10,000 troops to the border to curb illegal drug flows.

CNBC: Trump signed an executive order to create a US sovereign wealth fund intended to stoke economic development — and possibly buy TikTok.

WSJ: Trump advisers are considering an executive order to break up the Education Department, starting with shuttering several key functions.

Barron’s: XRP, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies slumped today as investors freed up cash in preparation for Trump’s tariffs.

CNN: Super Bowl LIX ticket prices have dropped below $4,000, down 30% from last week and over 50% cheaper than last year’s record prices.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

The Odds Are In ODD’s Favor

By All Odds

JPMorgan (JPM) believes the odds are in Oddity’s (ODD) favor.

The bank initiated coverage of the beauty and wellness stock at an Overweight rating with a $55 price target, representing around 16% upside from today’s close.

JPM pointed to Oddity’s upcoming new platform launches and potential product releases as reasons for its bullishness.

Growth Drivers

The company is expected to launch two new brands later this year, starting with a telehealth platform specializing in people with skin and body issues. 

Analyst Cory Carpenter believes that these launches, coupled with Oddity’s international expansion and online business, will drive sustainable 20% long-term growth. The analyst also expects its online penetration to double in the coming years.

Carpenter thinks Oddity is attractive thanks to its 70% gross margin and 20% adjusted EBITDA. And when the company reports earnings in mid-March, the analyst is confident both EBITDA and revenue will come in above expectations.

ODD One Out

Carpenter says investors’ concerns regarding the broader beauty sector have bogged down the stock. Its stock closed 2024 in the green, but lagged the S&P 500’s sharp gains last year.

However, the analyst maintains that Oddity is the odd one out. It has beat earnings estimates in almost every quarter since its IPO. As such, Carpenter says, this could make for an attractive entry point, especially considering it trades at a discount to many of its peers. 

Most analysts agree. 5 of 8 covering the stock rate ODD a Buy or Strong Buy, and its average price target sits at $52, just shy of double-digit upside.

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ON OUR RADAR

Reuters: US manufacturing saw its first expansion since 2022 in December, though tariffs may threaten the recovery.

WSJ: A study by First Street warns climate change could erase $1.5T in US home values.

CNBC: Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Trump’s second term and said it will “restore order” in Europe.

CNN: Gerber recalled its teething sticks due to choking hazards after reports of incidents, including one emergency room visit.

AP: A trade war with Canada and Mexico could wreak havoc on Kentucky’s bourbon country.

FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Amphenol (APH) over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish

🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🐻 Bearish

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