Everyone's Talking About It, But No One Is

S&P Global $SPGI ( ▼ 0.16% ) has delivered impressive financial results, yet its stock has barely budged.

Since 2022, earnings per share have grown at a 17% annual pace, with consensus calling for a sharp jump in fiscal 2025.

Still, shares gained only modestly last year as investors chased flashier AI stories.

Barron’s argues that this disconnect has created an overlooked opportunity in a company with durable growth drivers and strong cash generation.

S&P Global’s Ratings division, which accounts for about one-third of revenue, stands to benefit from falling interest rates and a looming refinancing wave.

Management estimates more than $8 trillion in debt will mature by 2028, well above historical averages, potentially driving higher demand for credit ratings.

AI is another lever. S&P Global owns vast proprietary datasets that can be licensed to third parties and embedded into its own products, including its ChatIQ generative-AI assistant.

Management views AI as an added distribution channel rather than a threat.

Growth is also coming from private markets.

The $1.8 billion acquisition of With Intelligence adds more than 3,000 customers and $130 million in revenue, expanding coverage across private credit and alternatives.

Analysts see meaningful synergies in combining fragmented private data with S&P Global’s existing platforms.

With expanding margins, strong free cash flow, and consistent buybacks, Barron’s says the stock may be worth more than investors currently give it credit for.