Even Birkins Are Feeling It

Scarcity has long been the luxury industry’s secret weapon. Long wait lists signal desirability, protect pricing power, and turn handbags and watches into cultural assets.

But recent data suggests those lines are moving faster.

Resale values for ultra-scarce goods are slipping. Premiums for Rolex and Patek Philippe watches have fallen for three straight years, according to WatchCharts. Rolex resale premiums have roughly halved since early 2024. Patek’s have dropped sharply from pandemic-era highs.

Falling resale value is a key signal. It suggests demand no longer overwhelms supply.

A similar pattern is showing up in handbags. Auction data analyzed by Bernstein shows resale premiums for Hermès Birkin and Kelly bags at their lowest levels since 2017. Buyers still pay well above retail on average, but once popular mini styles are stripped out, larger bags now sell close to retail prices after fees.

Several forces are at work. Pandemic-era speculation is fading. More owners are selling luxury goods for cash, boosting secondhand supply.

At the same time, large price increases in the primary market have outpaced resale gains, compressing premiums.

Scarcity-based brands have relied on these premiums as proof of enduring demand. They also help drive spending in adjacent categories through bundling. As resale values soften and non-core sales weaken, the pressure mounts.

For ultrawealthy buyers, shorter wait lists are welcome. For luxury brands built on scarcity, they are a warning sign.