HAPPY THURSDAY TO THE STREET.

GPT-5 is out. Free and premium users alike now have access to OpenAI’s latest AI product, which it’s calling “the best model in the world.” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman went on to compare it to the iPhone’s shift from pixelated to a Retina display.

Until it stops spamming em dashes, we’ll believe it when we see it.

(Read to the end to see what we mean…)

  • 🟨 | US stocks were mixed today as President Trump’s latest sweeping tariffs took effect.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Duolingo $DUOL ( ▲ 12.93% ) successfully guilt-tripped investors into redownloading the app after reporting strong user growth, stemming from its AI efforts.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Intel $INTC ( ▼ 3.66% ) slumped as Trump publicly called for its CEO’s resignation, after GOP senators questioned the executive’s ties to China.

— Brooks & Cas

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STOCK HEATMAPS

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

Market Movers

AIRBNB, AMD, ELI LILLY

$ABNB ( ▲ 0.31% ) Airbnb Growth Accelerates As Q2 Earnings Beat. Why The Stock Is Falling Anyway. (IBD)

$AMD ( ▼ 0.77% ) AMD is selling record numbers of CPUs at Intel’s expense. (The Verge)

$LLY ( ▼ 0.45% ) Lilly pill cuts body weight by 12.4% in trial, lagging Novo's Wegovy injection (Reuters)

$APP ( ▼ 0.03% ) AppLovin Stock Gains After Earnings. Why That’s Not a Big Deal. (Barron’s)

$WBD ( ▼ 0.25% ) Film Hits Help Warner Bros. Swing to Profit as Company Restructures (Bloomberg)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

Reuters: Trump’s new tariffs took effect today, raising US import duties to a century high and prompting backlash from key trade partners.

AP: Trump’s planned 100% tariff on non-US-made computer chips is creating confusion among businesses and allies.

Quartz: Amazon Web Services $AMZN ( ▲ 0.2% ) will give US federal agencies up to $1B in cloud credits through 2028.

CNBC: Firefly Aerospace $FLY ( ▲ 2.7% ) opened at $70 in its Nasdaq debut, valuing the company near $10B after raising $868M at a $45 IPO price.

Bloomberg: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has emerged as the frontrunner for Fed Chair among Trump advisers.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

IS THIS BERKSHIRE CLONE THE MARKET’S BEST-KEPT SECRET?

Discount Berkshire

Graham Holdings $GHC ( ▼ 0.2% ) is a quiet conglomerate modeled after Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▲ 0.28% ). It owns a diverse mix of businesses, spanning industries like education, TV, healthcare, auto dealerships, and restaurants.

According to Barron’s, Graham is worth more than the sum of its parts. But investors are valuing it at less than.

Despite all of its assets, Graham trades at a steep discount to its true value, with an estimated sum-of-its-parts valuation of over $1,500 per share compared to its current market price of $957.

But Barron’s argues it boasts a strong balance sheet, overfunded pension assets, and an intent to boost cash flow and shareholder value, signaling long-term upside.

Catalysts & Complexity

Investors often struggle to analyze Graham due to its complexity and minimal transparency. It holds no quarterly calls, offers little guidance, and 25% of it is controlled by supervoting family shares.

However, several catalysts could potentially unlock value: a rumored spinoff of its valuable TV stations, shrinking losses at Framebridge, and rising healthcare profits.

Analysts cited by Barron’s believe Graham could generate $80 per share in earnings by 2027, aided by a recovery in broadcasting and ongoing improvements in smaller units. Despite this, its stock remains remarkably under the radar.

Unlocking Value One Piece at a Time

Graham’s hidden strengths include a booming healthcare segment — which has seen its revenue jump 36% and profits double — as well as a thriving education arm led by Kaplan.

Its pension fund, overfunded by $2.5 billion, holds $600 million in Berkshire stock and is creatively used to finance acquisitions like an aluminum-products firm. The TV business alone could potentially fetch $1.5 billion amid industry consolidation, per Barorn’s.

In total, Graham’s asset value is estimated at $6.9 billion. Its market cap is just $4.2 billion.

Are you bullish or bearish on Graham Holdings (GHC) over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

CNBC: Trump will sign an executive order allowing 401(k) plans to include alternative assets like crypto, private equity, and real estate.

CNN: Another planned order will ban banks from denying services based on political or religious views, targeting what conservatives call “debanking”.

AP: The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 6.63%, its lowest level since April.

WSJ: Despite Trump’s tariffs and reshoring promises, US manufacturing has contracted through most of his second term so far.

BI: Apple’s $AAPL ( ▼ 0.3% ) celebratory announcement at the White House ended with a gift to Trump. But did CEO Tim Cook walk away with the real prize?

STREET TWEET

‘Nuff said.

WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Sirius XM $SIRI ( ▼ 0.78% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐂 Bullish — “I like my Sirius XM, and my wife won't live without it. It is a great entertainment and advertising service.”

  • 🐻 Bearish — “The only reason anyone is buying it is because Berkshire is buying it, and I don't think Warren is the buyer.”

Reply

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