HAPPY TUESDAY TO THE STREET
Jamie Dimon has a theory about Middle East peace: follow the money.
Speaking at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, the JPMorgan (JPM) CEO argued that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Israel, and the US all want permanent peace because without it, the foreign direct investment they're counting on won't show up. After all, paper beats rock. What’s a ballistic missile, next to a good IRR?
🟥 | US stocks slid slightly today as oil prices bounced back following yesterday’s dip.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: Netgear (NTGR) popped after the FCC banned imports of consumer routers made abroad, citing national security.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Circle (CRCL) plummeted after rival Tether announced plans to have its USDT reserves audited by a Big Four accounting firm.
— Brooks & Cas
MARKET SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Unusual Whales
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE ANTHROPIC VS DEPARTMENT OF WAR HEARING?
An AI company, the Pentagon, and a federal courtroom. The hearing in Anthropic vs the Department of War, starting minutes from now, has prediction markets pricing everything from "Claude" (97 cents yes) to "Woke/DEI" (18 cents yes).
At stake for the firm: Defense Secretary Hegseth's supply-chain designation could cost Anthropic billions in lost revenue. At stake for bettors: 32:1 odds that the company in question won’t even mention its own product.
Market Movers
ESTEE LAUDER, SMITHFIELD, SAP
📉 | Estée Lauder (EL) confirmed it is in discussions with Puig about a potential merger.
📈 | Smithfield Foods (SFD) beat Q4 earnings and full-year guidance estimates while raising its quarterly dividend 25%.
📉 | SAP (SAP) fell after JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral, citing a decelerating cloud backlog.
📈 | Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) surged after landing a new order from a major hyperscale customer for 800G data center transceivers.
📉 | FS KKR Capital (FSK) fell after Moody's downgraded its bond rating to junk.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
WOVEN INTO THE BULL CASE
Stock Spotlight
Back in the Building
The Rating: Analyst Tal Liani reinstated CoreWeave with a Buy rating, citing solid and durable demand for AI infrastructure.
The Thesis: CoreWeave's proprietary AI-optimized software and strategic alliances with Nvidia and OpenAI position it to capture share of the $79 billion AI infrastructure as a service market.
The Follow-On: Watch for GPU delivery cadence, new data center energization, and evidence of pricing durability at contract renewals. Q1 guidance came in light. Liani views that as a temporary setback, not a sign of deteriorating fundamentals.
Sponsored by Miso Robotics
That’s what the world’s richest person said about AI and robotics. There’s just one question: How do you take advantage of a wealth creation opportunity like this?
Over 39,000 people are doing it by investing in a private company: Miso Robotics. And Miso has already landed customers like White Castle, Jersey Mike’s, Jamba, Auntie Ann’s Pretzels, and many more.
Miso’s not a newcomer to AI and robots. They’re a first-mover and current leader in bringing AI-powered robots to one of the biggest markets in the world, the $1T fast food industry. Miso’s spent years honing their technology, with their AI-powered Flippy Fry Station robot already logging over 200,000 hours in real kitchens.
Flippy can boost restaurant profits by 4X, making it an easy choice as brands turn to robots and AI to solve a desperate labor shortage.
Now Miso’s scaling commercial production of Flippy toward 100,000+ potential U.S. locations. That’s a $4B/year revenue opportunity.
This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com.
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
✈️ | Delta Air Lines (DAL) suspended airport escorts and specialty services for members of Congress, citing strain from the partial shutdown.
Above 2.5 million: 98%
Above 2.55 million: 57%
Above 2.6 million: 10%
Above 2.65 million: 2%
💊 | The FDA issued a warning to ImmunityBio (IBRX) over claims that its bladder cancer drug could treat or prevent all cancers.
🪖 | The Pentagon is planning to deploy 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran.
🤖 | Meta (META) named CTO Andrew Bosworth to lead its AI For Work initiative as the company moves to embed AI across its 78,000-person workforce.
🛒 | OpenAI revamped its in-app shopping experience in ChatGPT after its Instant Checkout feature failed to gain traction with merchants.
MONDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on Valvoline (VVV) over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Bullish — “Valvoline is a solid corporation and their waste oil reprocessing is growing, but it isn't clear that the 25% increase quoted is achievable over the next year.”
