Oil crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. Nations worldwide have issued a bold, coordinated response: please consider not driving to lunch.

The Philippines rolled out a four-day workweek for government staff. Australia is quietly rationing fuel at some stations. And the UK's largest motoring organization is advising drivers to cut 'non-essential journeys.'

A global energy crisis, and the emergency plan involves turning off your computer during lunch. Progress?

— Brooks & Cas

Oil spiked to $119 a barrel overnight before retreating to close near $95, which sounds like relief until you remember that economists already flagged $120 as the recession trigger.

Marathon Asset Management's CEO put it plainly: "$120 for Brent, you're at zero growth." JPMorgan's trading desk turned officially "Tactically Bearish" on Monday and saw no off-ramp for the Iran war.

What are the odds this gets worse before it gets better?

📈 | Lumentum (LITE), Vertiv (VRT), and Coherent (COHR) will be added to the S&P 500, effective March 23.

📈 | Xenon Pharmaceuticals’ (XENE) seizure drug azetukalner beat placebo in a key efficacy trial.

📉 | Olema Pharmaceuticals’ (OLMA) Roche Phase 3 study for an oral breast cancer drug failed to meet its primary objective.

📈 | Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) is nearing a settlement with the DOJ over its alleged monopoly on the live concert industry.

📈 | United Therapeutics (UTHR) authorized a $2 billion stock repurchase.

The Rating: Goldman Sachs analysts rate Chinese oil giant PetroChina a Buy, citing potential full-year free cash flow gains of more than 10% as higher oil prices driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure benefit upstream producers.

The Thesis: PetroChina's exploration and production business captures the full benefit of higher crude prices, unlike refining-heavy peers such as Sinopec, which face a domestic pricing mechanism that limits their upside.

The Follow-On: Goldman built its call pricing in $70 average Brent; with Brent now trading well above $100, the firm's free cash flow scenario is playing out ahead of schedule. PetroChina shares are accessible via international broker or through the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI).

⚡ | Qatar shut down the world's largest LNG export terminal handling roughly 20% of global LNG supply, following a drone strike.

🚢 | Iran's Foreign Ministry warned that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz "must be very careful", while Trump told shipowners to “show some guts”.

⚖️ | Anthropic sued the Defense Department and Secretary Pete Hegseth over the Pentagon's move to designate it a supply-chain security risk.

🔐 | OpenAI is acquiring cybersecurity startup Promptfoo, integrating its AI security testing tools into OpenAI's Frontier platform for AI agents.

Are you bullish or bearish on Okta (OKTA) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

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