HAPPY MONDAY TO THE STREET.

And happy Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.09% ) week! The chipmaking giant (and largest company in the world by market cap) reports earnings on Wednesday of this week. So what do you think we’ll get? A record earnings beat? Or a record earnings beat?

Choose carefully! One of those will send the market tumbling, and the other could push it to all-time highs…

Finally, read to the end for the day the index became the market…

— Brooks & Cas

Sponsored by Pacaso

Institutional investors back startups to unlock outsized returns. Meanwhile, regular investors have to wait. But not anymore. Thanks to regulatory updates, some companies are doing things differently.

Take Revolut. In 2016, 433 regular people invested an average of $2,730. Today? That’s worth $1+ million, up 89,900%. No wonder thousands are taking the chance on Pacaso. 

Founded by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech reshapes the $1.3T vacation home market. They’ve earned $110M+ in gross profit to date, including 41% YoY growth in 2024 alone. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

The same institutional investors behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay also backed Pacaso. 

And you can join them as an early-stage investor for just $2.90/share. 

This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso's Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the Nasdaq is subject to approvals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Comparisons to other companies are for informational purposes only and should not imply similar success.

STOCK HEATMAPS

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

Market Movers

MP MATERIALS, NVIDIA, RH

$MP ( ▼ 3.43% ) MP Materials Corp. announced that it has received $400 million in funding from US Department of Defense (MarketScreener)

$NVDA ( ▲ 1.09% ) Nvidia’s new ‘robot brain’ goes on sale for $3,499 as company targets robotics for growth (CNBC)

$RH ( ▼ 4.13% ) / $WSM ( ▼ 0.02% ) Furniture Stocks Retreat After Trump Threatens Tariffs on Imports (WSJ)

$TSLA ( ▲ 1.46% ) Tesla Stock Rises. Why Shares Could Be Headed for a Breakout. (Barron’s)

$DXCM ( ▲ 0.21% ) DexCom down as post Q2 earnings release slump continues (SeekingAlpha)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

BI: President Trump said the government’s 10% Intel $INTC ( ▼ 0.82% ) stake is part of a broader push to form a sovereign wealth fund and vowed to pursue similar deals.

Reuters: Elon Musk’s xAI sued Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.95% ) and OpenAI, accusing them of monopolistic practices that block competition in AI.

CNBC: Warren Buffett said he has no plans to buy another railroad, but wants BNSF to cooperate more with CSX $CSX ( ▼ 1.22% ).

Bloomberg: Trump said he will keep South Korea’s current tariff deal in place, rejecting President Lee Jae Myung’s request for changes.

WSJ: Here’s everything to know about what sparked the Cracker Barrel $CBRL ( ▲ 6.35% ) logo controversy, and the company’s response.

Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today

PUSHING BACK ON THE BUFFETT STRATEGY

Fair Or Foul

Warren Buffett’s mantra has long been that it’s better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. But new research from Macquarie suggests the Oracle of Omaha’s famous line might not hold up in practice.

According to the study, fair companies at wonderful prices decisively outperformed wonderful companies at fair prices.

Value vs. Vision

Macquarie’s analysts ran a 30-year backtest across 10 global markets. Their model quantified company fundamentals, then layered valuations on top.

When they split stocks into three buckets — wonderful-at-fair, fair-at-wonderful, and a mixed bag — the results turned Buffett’s wisdom on its head.

The Macquarie report concluded that valuation ultimately matters more than business fundamentals. Researchers found that fair companies bought cheaply can outperform the wonderful names trading at middling multiples.

Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Story

The finding may encourage valuation-driven investors. But naturally, like everything on Wall Street, it’s not an exact science.

Buffett’s philosophy is about margin of safety and compounding over decades, not simply a factor model. Quant screens can’t capture intangible qualities like brand strength, customer loyalty, or management skill.

Not to mention, it was actually Buffett’s longtime partner, the late Charlie Munger, who steered him away from “cigar-butt” investing in the first place. Instead of hunting for cheap scraps with one last puff of value, he pushed his partner toward high-quality businesses, even at fair valuations.

At the end of the day, there’s no “one-size-fits-all” investing strategy, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. But in a vacuum, whose investing advice would you follow: a prestigious investing firm, or the man who built one of the most successful portfolios in history?

Which core investing philosophy do you prefer?

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Sponsored by Pacaso

When the founder who sold his last company to Zillow for $120M starts a new venture, people notice. That’s why the same VC firms that backed Uber, Venmo, and eBay also invested in Pacaso.

Disrupting the real estate industry once again, Pacaso’s streamlined platform offers co-ownership of premier properties, revamping the $1.3T vacation home market.

And it works. By handing keys to 2,000+ happy homeowners, Pacaso has already made $110M+ in gross profits in their operating history.

Now, after 41% YoY gross profit growth last year alone, they recently reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.

And you can join them as an early-stage investor for just $2.90/share. 

This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso's Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the Nasdaq is subject to approvals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Comparisons to other companies are for informational purposes only and should not imply similar success.

ON OUR RADAR

AP: Democrats are urging Trump to resume construction on a nearly complete Rhode Island wind farm, halted over national security concerns.

Fortune: Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 0.81% ) CEO Brian Armstrong fired employees who refused to use AI coding assistants after giving them a one-week deadline.

CNBC: The secret behind Pop Mart’s hit Labubu dolls? China’s “blind box” fad, where shoppers buy mystery-packaged items without knowing what they’ll get.

Reuters: US new home sales fell 0.6% in July as high mortgage rates continued to weigh on housing demand.

BI: Billionaire-favorite festival Burning Man is facing financial strain after last year’s losses, with higher costs outpacing ticket sales.

STREET TWEET

Call it shrinkflation…

…cause the wrapper is officially bigger than what’s inside.

With ETFs overtaking stocks in raw count, the financial product has officially become more common than the thing it’s supposed to track.

The snake has swallowed its tail.

FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Target Hospitality $TH ( ▼ 0.4% ) over the next 12 months?

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish

▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐻 Bearish — “Not a fan.”

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