HAPPY FRIDAY TO THE STREET.
Fed tea in the morning, missile threats by afternoon — just another Friday on Wall Street. Stocks opened strong after a Fed official floated the idea of July rate cuts, but the mood soured as tensions with Iran flared and chip stocks took a hit. As it happened, traders weren’t eager to go long with war drums beating. Even Trump’s usual Powell jabs couldn’t distract from the growing unease.
🟨 | US stocks ended slightly lower, with only the Dow barely inching into the green, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment.
📈 | One Notable Gainer: GXO Logistics $GXO ( ▲ 2.36% ) jumped after raising its 2025 EBITDA outlook and naming Patrick Kelleher as CEO.
📉 | One Notable Decliner: Accenture $ACN ( ▲ 3.38% ) slid as a 6% drop in new bookings overshadowed its Q3 earnings and revenue beat.
— Brooks & Cas
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STOCK HEATMAPS
S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz
Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz
Market Movers
CARMAX, GMS, REGENCELL BIOSCIENCE
$KMX ( ▼ 2.04% ) CarMax Surges with Strong Q1 Earnings, Defies Market Expectations (GuruFocus)
$GMS ( ▲ 0.14% ) GMS Stock Soars 29%. Home Depot and QXO Both Want to Buy It. (Barron’s)
$RGC ( ▼ 37.65% ) Regencell Bioscience Holdings Announces 38:1 Stock Split Effective June 2025 (Simply Wall Street)
$KR ( ▲ 2.82% ) Kroger’s shares rise as grocer says shoppers seek lower prices, cook more at home (CNBC)
$CTSH ( ▲ 1.66% ) Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors (MarketWatch)
OVERHEARD ON THE STREET
CNBC: Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 8.23% ) signed its first deal to build China’s largest grid-scale battery plant, using Megapacks made in Shanghai.
Forbes: Uber $UBER ( ▲ 1.74% ) is ramping up its data-labeling platform to compete in AI training, following Scale AI’s deal with Meta $META ( ▲ 2.37% ).
QZ: Google $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.87% ) proposed showing rivals in search results after losing a $4.7B EU antitrust appeal tied to Digital Markets Act violations.
TechCrunch: Meta $META ( ▲ 2.37% ) failed to buy Ilya Sutskever’s $32B AI startup but is now in talks to hire its CEO, Daniel Gross, to boost its AI efforts.
CNBC: JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 1.19% ) is adding bond and CD trading to its app as it targets $1T in assets and caters to casual investors.
Tomorrow's Trade Idea, Today
ORACLE OUT
Say Goodbye to the 'Buffett Premium'
Warren Buffett is rightly considered to be one of the world's greatest investors. Yet he’s only ever made one market prediction that we’re aware of.
In fact, Buffett has dismissed efforts to predict what the market will do, saying that forecasts tell you nothing about the future, though “they may tell you a great deal about the forecaster.”
Nonetheless, Buffett did once predict that Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A ( ▲ 0.34% ), shares would rise after he stepped down as CEO. Instead, they’ve fallen off by over 10% in the weeks since Buffett's announcement.
Un-Buffett-ing Berkshire
Buffett will remain as Chairman, but Greg Abel — who's been with the company for over 20 years — will replace him as CEO in December. Some analysts think the stock may fall further when the pioneer of value investing ends his 60 years at the helm.
Buffett’s reputation is so hallowed in investing circles that Berkshire shares benefit from a so-called “Buffett premium.” The fund's shares trade higher than the fundamentals alone would merit.
According to Meyer Shields, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Berkshire shares could still retain anywhere from 5% to 10% of the premium today. According to CNBC, that reflects investor confidence that he'll still be involved as Chairman.
A 'Financial Fortress'
Buffett has repeatedly referred to Berkshire Hathaway as a “financial fortress.” He built a company that's well-positioned to withstand economic turbulence, with a diversified portfolio, serious cash holdings, and a focus on rock-solid dividend-paying companies.
Nothing about Buffett’s departure will change those advantages, or the company's almost $350 billion war chest. Berkshire owns 5% of the entire U.S. Treasury bill market as well as a solid cash buffer.
Volatility is to be expected as he steps away from the battlements. Nothing is certain in the investing world, but his fortress may still stand the test of time.
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ON OUR RADAR
Axios: A database of 16B stolen passwords from sites like Google and Facebook has surfaced, though no new breaches occurred, say experts.
CNN: Aflac $AFL ( ▲ 1.49% ) was hit in a major cyberattack, joining other insurers breached by hacker group Scattered Spider in a growing industry assault.
AP: Deezer will label AI-generated songs to combat streaming fraud, aiming to protect artists amid rising AI use in music creation.
CNN: Telegram founder Pavel Durov says he’ll split his estate equally among his 100+ biological children, including those via sperm donation.
FT: Trump’s tariffs have split the Fed on rate cuts, with some officials pushing for action as early as July and others urging caution through 2025.
THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Are you bullish or bearish on investments in the Gulf States over the next 12 months?
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐂 Bullish
▇▇▇▇▇▇ 🐻 Bearish
And, in response, you said:
🐂 Bullish — “MBS and the new generation in the UAE that align with him have realized the future isn't in oil, and they're working to make that future.”
🐻 Bearish — “Let's wait and see what happens with the Iran affair. A lot can happen in 12 months or 12 days.”
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